Lizhi Xing
Complex Network-Based Global Value Chain Accounting System (eBook, PDF)
From the Perspective of Econophysics
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Lizhi Xing
Complex Network-Based Global Value Chain Accounting System (eBook, PDF)
From the Perspective of Econophysics
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This book aims to theoretically and empirically enrich the GVC accounting framework with statistical physics and complex network theory from the perspective of econophysics, thus adding up to the existing theories. Besides, it also aims at capturing the essences of network models such as topological complexity, hierarchy, transmissibility, interaction, and causality and reflecting the objective interrelations among economies or between economies and economic systems on the GVC, so as to reveal the inherent evolution of the cross-regional and even global economic systems.
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This book aims to theoretically and empirically enrich the GVC accounting framework with statistical physics and complex network theory from the perspective of econophysics, thus adding up to the existing theories. Besides, it also aims at capturing the essences of network models such as topological complexity, hierarchy, transmissibility, interaction, and causality and reflecting the objective interrelations among economies or between economies and economic systems on the GVC, so as to reveal the inherent evolution of the cross-regional and even global economic systems.
Produktdetails
- Produktdetails
- Verlag: Springer Singapore
- Erscheinungstermin: 8. Februar 2022
- Englisch
- ISBN-13: 9789811692642
- Artikelnr.: 63409661
- Verlag: Springer Singapore
- Erscheinungstermin: 8. Februar 2022
- Englisch
- ISBN-13: 9789811692642
- Artikelnr.: 63409661
Lizhi Xing, Ph. D. in management, is Associate Researcher in College of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology. His work adopts Inter-Country Input–Output (ICIO), also called Multi-Region Input–Output (MRIO), data to build weighted and directed complex network models, which are the basis of measurement, simulation, and prediction on the international trade.
Preface 1 Part I Background 3 Chapter 1 Fundamental Issues in This Book 4 1.1 Concept of Econophysics 4 1.2 Purpose of Book 4 1.3 Literature Review 5 1.3.1 Industrial Complex Network 6 1.3.2 Global Value Chain 7 1.3.3 Input-Output Network 8 1.4 Data Structure 10 1.4.1 Advantage of IO Table 10 1.4.2 Available ICIO Database 10 1.4.3 Hierarchy of Economies 14 1.4.4 Classification of Industrial Sectors 24 1.5 ICIO Network Model 24 1.6 Summary 30 Part II Topological Structure 32 Chapter 2 Recognize the Trade Roles of Industrial Sectors 33 2.1 Introduction 33 2.2 Definition 34 2.2.1 Trade Types on the GVC 34 2.2.2 Decomposition of Trade Roles 36 2.3 Measurement 38 2.3.1 Statistical Inference on TBPs 38 2.3.2 Measurment of Dependency 40 2.4 Empirical Analysis: Economies’ Two Sorts of Dependence on Foreign Trade 41 2.4.1 Statistics on All Economies 42 2.4.2 Significance of Dual Circulation 43 2.4.3 Economic Meanings of Network-Based Dependency 45 2.5 Summary 47 Chapter 3 Probe the Industrial Linkages Reasonably and Effectively 48 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 Methodology 49 3.2.1 Path Issue in Similarity-Weight Network 49 3.2.2 Revised Floyd-Warshall Algorithm 50 3.2.3 Theoretical Basis of SRPL in GIVCN Model 52 3.2.4 Computation of SRPL in Consideration of Self-Loops 55 3.3 Empirical Analysis: Fragments of GVC 57 3.3.1 Single-Tuple Motif 57 3.3.2 Double-Tuple Motif 58 3.3.3 Triple-Tuple Motif 60 3.4 Summary 65 Chapter 4 Find the Vital Industrial Sectors and IO Relations 66 4.1 Introduction 66 4.2 Measurement 67 4.2.1 Average/Maximum Strongest Relevance Degree 67 4.2.2 Betweenness Centrality of Node 68 4.2.3 Betweenness Centrality of Edge 70 4.2.4 Closeness Centrality of Node 71 4.3 Connectedness/Compactness of NVC 73 4.4 Pivotability of Industrial Sectors 77 4.4.1 Overall Statistics 77 4.4.2 Cross-National Analysis 78 4.4.3 Robustness Analysis 81 4.5 Pivotability of IO Relations 82 4.5.1 Heterogeneity of Pivotability 82 4.5.2 Domestic Pivotability 86 4.5.3 International Pivotability 87 4.5.4 Global Pivotability 89 4.6 Coordinates of Industrial Sectors 91 4.6.1 Overall Statistics 91 4.6.2 Time-Series Analysis 95 4.6.3 Cross-Country Analysis 99 4.6.4 Cross-Sector Analysis 104 4.7 Comparison with Similar Studies 108 4.8 Summary 108 Part III Markov Process 111 Chapter 5 Measure the Global Impact of Industrial Sectors 112 5.1 Introduction 112 5.2 Methodology 112 5.2.1 Features of Value Stream in Economic System 112 5.2.2 Industrial Impact on the GVC 113 5.2.3 Structural Holes Theory in Dynamic Network 114 5.3 Measurement 115 5.3.1 Random Walk Centrality 116 5.3.2 Global Industrial Impact Coefficient 117 5.4 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast 117 5.4.1 Comparative Analysis with Classic IO Theory 117 5.4.2 Robustness Analysis 120 5.4.3 Statistics on Major Economies 125 5.4.4 Geographical Distribution of GIIC 129 5.4.5 Correlation Analysis with GDP 131 5.5 Summary 132 Chapter 6 Measure the Impact of Final Demands on the Global Production System 134 6.1 Introduction 134 6.2 Measurement 134 6.2.1 Counting First Passage Betweenness 134 6.2.2 Global Demand Dependence Index 136 6.3 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast 136 6.3.1 Robustness Analysis 136 6.3.2 The Econometric Analysis of Import/Export and GDDI 138 6.3.3 Statistics on the Global Level 142 6.3.4 Statistics on the Sectoral Level 143 6.4 Discussion 146 6.4.1 Economic Difference between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics 146 6.4.2 Intrinsic Relationship of Dynamic Metrics 147 6.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics 148 6.5 Summary 150 Chapter 7 Industrially Economic Impacts of Trump Administration's Trade Policy toward China 152 7.1 Bibliometrics on Sino-US Trade War 152 7.2 Decomposition of GIIC 158 7.3 Decomposition of GDDI 160 7.4 Regression Analysis 163 7.5 Simulation on the Year of 2020 165 7.6 Conclusion 167 Part IV Competition and Collaboration 170 Chapter 8 Quantify the Competitive Strength and Weakness of Economies 171 8.1 Introduction 171 8.2 Methodology 172 8.2.1 Bipartite Graph 172 8.2.2 Resource Allocation Process 173 8.3 Modeling 176 8.3.1 Database Selection 176 8.3.2 Modeling Framework 176 8.3.3 GIVCNBG Model 178 8.3.4 GIRCN Model 180 8.4 Measurement 181 8.4.1 Sector-Level Indices 181 8.4.2 Country-Level Indices 183 8.4.3 Correlation with GDP 185 8.5 Empirical Analysis: Competitive Strength of TPP-Related Nations 187 8.5.1 Time-Series Analysis on TPP-Relat ed Nations 188 8.5.2 Simulation on International Trade Policy 192 8.6 Summary 195 Chapter 9 Quantify the Collaborative Opportunity and Threat of Economies 201 9.1 Introduction 201 9.2 Methodology 202 9.3 Modeling 204 9.3.1 Database Selection 204 9.3.2 GPCCN Model 207 9.4 Measurement 211 9.4.1 Sector-Level Indices 211 9.4.2 Country-Level Indices 212 9.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Competitive Strengths and Collaborative Opportunities 215 9.5 Empirical Analysis: Collaborative Opportunity of BRI-Related Nations 216 9.5.1 Simulation on Asian Nations 217 9.5.2 Simulation on European Nations 222 9.5.3 Simulation on African Nations 226 9.5.4 Results and Discussions 230 9.6 Summary 231 Part V Evolutionary Mechanism 233 Chapter 10 Extract the Backbone of Global Value Chain 234 10.1 Introduction 234 10.2 Formal Problem Setting 235 10.2.1 Global Threshold 236 10.2.2 Disparity Filter 236 10.3 Proposed Algorithms 237 10.3.1 Searching Paths 238 10.3.2 Filtering Edges 238 10.3.3 Mixed Strategy 240 10.4 Results and Discussions 241 10.4.1 Preservation of Structural Information 242 10.4.2 Preservation of Functional Information 244 10.5 Summary 246 Chapter 11 Identify the Worldwide Industrial Transfer Pattern 247 11.1 Introduction 247 11.1.1 Neoclassical School 248 11.1.2 Behavioral School 248 11.1.3 Institutional School 248 11.2 Methodology 249 11.2.1 Econometric Model in Industrial Economics 249 11.2.2 Link Prediction in Complex Networks 250 11.3 Framework 251 11.3.1 GISRN Model 251 11.3.2 Training and Evaluation Metrics 252 11.3.3 Link Prediction Indices 253 11.3.4 Accuracy of Prediction Algorithms 256 11.4 Empirical Analysis I: Evolutionary Characteristics of Globalization 257 11.4.1 Density of GVC Backbone 257 11.4.2 Centralization of GVC Backbone 259 11.4.3 Global Efficiency of GVC Backbone 260 11.5 Empirical Analysis II: Evolutionary Mechanism of Globalization 261 11.5.1 Overall Statistics 263 11.5.2 Industrial Convergence 264 11.5.3 Mega-Merger Tendency 266 11.5.4 Industrial Agglomeration 267 11.5.5 Niche Advantage 267 11.6 Summary 268 Chapter 12 Depict the Nested Structure of Production System 270 12.1 Introduction 271 12.2 Modeling 272 12.3 Measurement 274 12.3.1 Sorting Methods 274 12.3.2 Nestedness Quantification 275 12.4 Statistical Analysis 278 12.4.1 Divergence Analysis 278 12.4.2 Trend Analysis 280 12.4.3 Robustness Analysis 282 12.4.4 Evolutionary Mechanism 284 12.5 Econometric Analysis 285 12.5.1 Correlation between Variables 286 12.5.2 Regression Model 290 12.6 Empirical Analysis II: Brexit’s Impact on European Nations 297 12.6.1 Brexit 297 12.6.2 Simulation Setting 298 12.6.3 Results and Discussions 298 12.7 Empirical Analysis II: RCEP’s Economic Significance to Relevant Nations 301 12.7.1 RCEP 301 12.7.2 Simulation Setting 302 12.7.3 Results and Discussions 302 12.8 Summary 307 Part VI Causal Inference 309 Chapter 13 Connect the Structural Features and Economic Status 310 13.1 Introduction 310 13.2 Literature Review 311 13.3 Econometric Model 312 13.4 Hypotheses 313 13.4.1 Hypothesis Formulation 313 13.4.2 Hypothesis Testing 314 13.5 Results and Discussions 316 13.5.1 The Effects of Structural Capital 316 13.5.2 The Effects of Relational Capital 318 13.5.3 The Effects of Cognitive Capital 319 13.6 Summary 320 Postscript 321 Appendix 323 References 337
Preface1Part I Background3Chapter 1 Fundamental Issues in This Book41.1 Concept of Econophysics41.2 Purpose of Book41.3 Literature Review51.3.1 Industrial Complex Network61.3.2 Global Value Chain71.3.3 Input-Output Network81.4 Data Structure101.4.1 Advantage of IO Table101.4.2 Available ICIO Database101.4.3 Hierarchy of Economies141.4.4 Classification of Industrial Sectors241.5 ICIO Network Model241.6 Summary30Part II Topological Structure32Chapter 2 Recognize the Trade Roles of Industrial Sectors332.1 Introduction332.2 Definition342.2.1 Trade Types on the GVC342.2.2 Decomposition of Trade Roles362.3 Measurement382.3.1 Statistical Inference on TBPs382.3.2 Measurment of Dependency402.4 Empirical Analysis: Economies' Two Sorts of Dependence on Foreign Trade412.4.1 Statistics on All Economies422.4.2 Significance of Dual Circulation432.4.3 Economic Meanings of Network-Based Dependency452.5 Summary47Chapter 3 Probe the Industrial Linkages Reasonably and Effectively483.1 Introduction483.2 Methodology493.2.1 Path Issue in Similarity-Weight Network493.2.2 Revised Floyd-Warshall Algorithm503.2.3 Theoretical Basis of SRPL in GIVCN Model523.2.4 Computation of SRPL in Consideration of Self-Loops553.3 Empirical Analysis: Fragments of GVC573.3.1 Single-Tuple Motif573.3.2 Double-Tuple Motif583.3.3 Triple-Tuple Motif603.4 Summary65Chapter 4 Find the Vital Industrial Sectors and IO Relations664.1 Introduction664.2 Measurement674.2.1 Average/Maximum Strongest Relevance Degree674.2.2 Betweenness Centrality of Node684.2.3 Betweenness Centrality of Edge704.2.4 Closeness Centrality of Node714.3 Connectedness/Compactness of NVC734.4 Pivotability of Industrial Sectors774.4.1 Overall Statistics774.4.2 Cross-National Analysis784.4.3 Robustness Analysis814.5 Pivotability of IO Relations824.5.1 Heterogeneity of Pivotability824.5.2 Domestic Pivotability864.5.3 International Pivotability874.5.4 Global Pivotability894.6 Coordinates of Industrial Sectors914.6.1 Overall Statistics914.6.2 Time-Series Analysis954.6.3 Cross-Country Analysis994.6.4 Cross-Sector Analysis1044.7 Comparison with Similar Studies1084.8 Summary108Part III Markov Process111Chapter 5 Measure the Global Impact of Industrial Sectors1125.1 Introduction1125.2 Methodology1125.2.1 Features of Value Stream in Economic System1125.2.2 Industrial Impact on the GVC1135.2.3 Structural Holes Theory in Dynamic Network1145.3 Measurement1155.3.1 Random Walk Centrality1165.3.2 Global Industrial Impact Coefficient1175.4 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast1175.4.1 Comparative Analysis with Classic IO Theory1175.4.2 Robustness Analysis1205.4.3 Statistics on Major Economies1255.4.4 Geographical Distribution of GIIC1295.4.5 Correlation Analysis with GDP1315.5 Summary132Chapter 6 Measure the Impact of Final Demands on the Global Production System1346.1 Introduction1346.2 Measurement1346.2.1 Counting First Passage Betweenness1346.2.2 Global Demand Dependence Index1366.3 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast1366.3.1 Robustness Analysis1366.3.2 The Econometric Analysis of Import/Export and GDDI1386.3.3 Statistics on the Global Level1426.3.4 Statistics on the Sectoral Level1436.4 Discussion1466.4.1 Economic Difference between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics1466.4.2 Intrinsic Relationship of Dynamic Metrics1476.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics1486.5 Summary150Chapter 7 Industrially Economic Impacts of Trump Administration's Trade Policy toward China1527.1 Bibliometrics on Sino-US Trade War1527.2 Decomposition of GIIC1587.3 Decomposition of GDDI1607.4 Regression Analysis1637.5 Simulation on the Year of 20201657.6 Conclusion167Part IV Competition and Collaboration170Chapter 8 Quantify the Competitive Strength and Weakness of Economies1718.1 Introduction1718.2 Methodology1728.2.1 Bipartite Graph1728.2.2 Resource Allocation Process1738.3 Modeling1768.3.1 Database Selection1768.3.2 Modeling Framework1768.3.3 GIVCNBG Model1788.3.4 GIRCN Model1808.4 Measurement1818.4.1 Sector-Level Indices1818.4.2 Country-Level Indices1838.4.3 Correlation with GDP1858.5 Empirical Analysis: Competitive Strength of TPP-Related Nations1878.5.1 Time-Series Analysis on TPP-Relat ed Nations1888.5.2 Simulation on International Trade Policy1928.6 Summary195Chapter 9 Quantify the Collaborative Opportunity and Threat of Economies2019.1 Introduction2019.2 Methodology2029.3 Modeling2049.3.1 Database Selection2049.3.2 GPCCN Model2079.4 Measurement2119.4.1 Sector-Level Indices2119.4.2 Country-Level Indices2129.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Competitive Strengths and Collaborative Opportunities2159.5 Empirical Analysis: Collaborative Opportunity of BRI-Related Nations2169.5.1 Simulation on Asian Nations2179.5.2 Simulation on European Nations2229.5.3 Simulation on African Nations2269.5.4 Results and Discussions2309.6 Summary231Part V Evolutionary Mechanism233Chapter 10 Extract the Backbone of Global Value Chain23410.1 Introduction23410.2 Formal Problem Setting23510.2.1 Global Threshold23610.2.2 Disparity Filter23610.3 Proposed Algorithms23710.3.1 Searching Paths23810.3.2 Filtering Edges23810.3.3 Mixed Strategy24010.4 Results and Discussions24110.4.1 Preservation of Structural Information24210.4.2 Preservation of Functional Information24410.5 Summary246Chapter 11 Identify the Worldwide Industrial Transfer Pattern24711.1 Introduction24711.1.1 Neoclassical School24811.1.2 Behavioral School24811.1.3 Institutional School24811.2 Methodology24911.2.1 Econometric Model in Industrial Economics24911.2.2 Link Prediction in Complex Networks25011.3 Framework25111.3.1 GISRN Model25111.3.2 Training and Evaluation Metrics25211.3.3 Link Prediction Indices25311.3.4 Accuracy of Prediction Algorithms25611.4 Empirical Analysis I: Evolutionary Characteristics of Globalization25711.4.1 Density of GVC Backbone25711.4.2 Centralization of GVC Backbone25911.4.3 Global Efficiency of GVC Backbone26011.5 Empirical Analysis II: Evolutionary Mechanism of Globalization26111.5.1 Overall Statistics26311.5.2 Industrial Convergence26411.5.3 Mega-Merger Tendency26611.5.4 Industrial Agglomeration26711.5.5 Niche Advantage26711.6 Summary268Chapter 12 Depict the Nested Structure of Production System27012.1 Introduction27112.2 Modeling27212.3 Measurement27412.3.1 Sorting Methods27412.3.2 Nestedness Quantification27512.4 Statistical Analysis27812.4.1 Divergence Analysis27812.4.2 Trend Analysis28012.4.3 Robustness Analysis28212.4.4 Evolutionary Mechanism28412.5 Econometric Analysis28512.5.1 Correlation between Variables28612.5.2 Regression Model29012.6 Empirical Analysis II: Brexit's Impact on European Nations29712.6.1 Brexit29712.6.2 Simulation Setting29812.6.3 Results and Discussions29812.7 Empirical Analysis II: RCEP's Economic Significance to Relevant Nations30112.7.1 RCEP30112.7.2 Simulation Setting30212.7.3 Results and Discussions30212.8 Summary307Part VI Causal Inference309Chapter 13 Connect the Structural Features and Economic Status31013.1 Introduction31013.2 Literature Review31113.3 Econometric Model31213.4 Hypotheses31313.4.1 Hypothesis Formulation31313.4.2 Hypothesis Testing31413.5 Results and Discussions31613.5.1 The Effects of Structural Capital31613.5.2 The Effects of Relational Capital31813.5.3 The Effects of Cognitive Capital31913.6 Summary320Postscript321Appendix323References337
Preface 1 Part I Background 3 Chapter 1 Fundamental Issues in This Book 4 1.1 Concept of Econophysics 4 1.2 Purpose of Book 4 1.3 Literature Review 5 1.3.1 Industrial Complex Network 6 1.3.2 Global Value Chain 7 1.3.3 Input-Output Network 8 1.4 Data Structure 10 1.4.1 Advantage of IO Table 10 1.4.2 Available ICIO Database 10 1.4.3 Hierarchy of Economies 14 1.4.4 Classification of Industrial Sectors 24 1.5 ICIO Network Model 24 1.6 Summary 30 Part II Topological Structure 32 Chapter 2 Recognize the Trade Roles of Industrial Sectors 33 2.1 Introduction 33 2.2 Definition 34 2.2.1 Trade Types on the GVC 34 2.2.2 Decomposition of Trade Roles 36 2.3 Measurement 38 2.3.1 Statistical Inference on TBPs 38 2.3.2 Measurment of Dependency 40 2.4 Empirical Analysis: Economies’ Two Sorts of Dependence on Foreign Trade 41 2.4.1 Statistics on All Economies 42 2.4.2 Significance of Dual Circulation 43 2.4.3 Economic Meanings of Network-Based Dependency 45 2.5 Summary 47 Chapter 3 Probe the Industrial Linkages Reasonably and Effectively 48 3.1 Introduction 48 3.2 Methodology 49 3.2.1 Path Issue in Similarity-Weight Network 49 3.2.2 Revised Floyd-Warshall Algorithm 50 3.2.3 Theoretical Basis of SRPL in GIVCN Model 52 3.2.4 Computation of SRPL in Consideration of Self-Loops 55 3.3 Empirical Analysis: Fragments of GVC 57 3.3.1 Single-Tuple Motif 57 3.3.2 Double-Tuple Motif 58 3.3.3 Triple-Tuple Motif 60 3.4 Summary 65 Chapter 4 Find the Vital Industrial Sectors and IO Relations 66 4.1 Introduction 66 4.2 Measurement 67 4.2.1 Average/Maximum Strongest Relevance Degree 67 4.2.2 Betweenness Centrality of Node 68 4.2.3 Betweenness Centrality of Edge 70 4.2.4 Closeness Centrality of Node 71 4.3 Connectedness/Compactness of NVC 73 4.4 Pivotability of Industrial Sectors 77 4.4.1 Overall Statistics 77 4.4.2 Cross-National Analysis 78 4.4.3 Robustness Analysis 81 4.5 Pivotability of IO Relations 82 4.5.1 Heterogeneity of Pivotability 82 4.5.2 Domestic Pivotability 86 4.5.3 International Pivotability 87 4.5.4 Global Pivotability 89 4.6 Coordinates of Industrial Sectors 91 4.6.1 Overall Statistics 91 4.6.2 Time-Series Analysis 95 4.6.3 Cross-Country Analysis 99 4.6.4 Cross-Sector Analysis 104 4.7 Comparison with Similar Studies 108 4.8 Summary 108 Part III Markov Process 111 Chapter 5 Measure the Global Impact of Industrial Sectors 112 5.1 Introduction 112 5.2 Methodology 112 5.2.1 Features of Value Stream in Economic System 112 5.2.2 Industrial Impact on the GVC 113 5.2.3 Structural Holes Theory in Dynamic Network 114 5.3 Measurement 115 5.3.1 Random Walk Centrality 116 5.3.2 Global Industrial Impact Coefficient 117 5.4 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast 117 5.4.1 Comparative Analysis with Classic IO Theory 117 5.4.2 Robustness Analysis 120 5.4.3 Statistics on Major Economies 125 5.4.4 Geographical Distribution of GIIC 129 5.4.5 Correlation Analysis with GDP 131 5.5 Summary 132 Chapter 6 Measure the Impact of Final Demands on the Global Production System 134 6.1 Introduction 134 6.2 Measurement 134 6.2.1 Counting First Passage Betweenness 134 6.2.2 Global Demand Dependence Index 136 6.3 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast 136 6.3.1 Robustness Analysis 136 6.3.2 The Econometric Analysis of Import/Export and GDDI 138 6.3.3 Statistics on the Global Level 142 6.3.4 Statistics on the Sectoral Level 143 6.4 Discussion 146 6.4.1 Economic Difference between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics 146 6.4.2 Intrinsic Relationship of Dynamic Metrics 147 6.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics 148 6.5 Summary 150 Chapter 7 Industrially Economic Impacts of Trump Administration's Trade Policy toward China 152 7.1 Bibliometrics on Sino-US Trade War 152 7.2 Decomposition of GIIC 158 7.3 Decomposition of GDDI 160 7.4 Regression Analysis 163 7.5 Simulation on the Year of 2020 165 7.6 Conclusion 167 Part IV Competition and Collaboration 170 Chapter 8 Quantify the Competitive Strength and Weakness of Economies 171 8.1 Introduction 171 8.2 Methodology 172 8.2.1 Bipartite Graph 172 8.2.2 Resource Allocation Process 173 8.3 Modeling 176 8.3.1 Database Selection 176 8.3.2 Modeling Framework 176 8.3.3 GIVCNBG Model 178 8.3.4 GIRCN Model 180 8.4 Measurement 181 8.4.1 Sector-Level Indices 181 8.4.2 Country-Level Indices 183 8.4.3 Correlation with GDP 185 8.5 Empirical Analysis: Competitive Strength of TPP-Related Nations 187 8.5.1 Time-Series Analysis on TPP-Relat ed Nations 188 8.5.2 Simulation on International Trade Policy 192 8.6 Summary 195 Chapter 9 Quantify the Collaborative Opportunity and Threat of Economies 201 9.1 Introduction 201 9.2 Methodology 202 9.3 Modeling 204 9.3.1 Database Selection 204 9.3.2 GPCCN Model 207 9.4 Measurement 211 9.4.1 Sector-Level Indices 211 9.4.2 Country-Level Indices 212 9.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Competitive Strengths and Collaborative Opportunities 215 9.5 Empirical Analysis: Collaborative Opportunity of BRI-Related Nations 216 9.5.1 Simulation on Asian Nations 217 9.5.2 Simulation on European Nations 222 9.5.3 Simulation on African Nations 226 9.5.4 Results and Discussions 230 9.6 Summary 231 Part V Evolutionary Mechanism 233 Chapter 10 Extract the Backbone of Global Value Chain 234 10.1 Introduction 234 10.2 Formal Problem Setting 235 10.2.1 Global Threshold 236 10.2.2 Disparity Filter 236 10.3 Proposed Algorithms 237 10.3.1 Searching Paths 238 10.3.2 Filtering Edges 238 10.3.3 Mixed Strategy 240 10.4 Results and Discussions 241 10.4.1 Preservation of Structural Information 242 10.4.2 Preservation of Functional Information 244 10.5 Summary 246 Chapter 11 Identify the Worldwide Industrial Transfer Pattern 247 11.1 Introduction 247 11.1.1 Neoclassical School 248 11.1.2 Behavioral School 248 11.1.3 Institutional School 248 11.2 Methodology 249 11.2.1 Econometric Model in Industrial Economics 249 11.2.2 Link Prediction in Complex Networks 250 11.3 Framework 251 11.3.1 GISRN Model 251 11.3.2 Training and Evaluation Metrics 252 11.3.3 Link Prediction Indices 253 11.3.4 Accuracy of Prediction Algorithms 256 11.4 Empirical Analysis I: Evolutionary Characteristics of Globalization 257 11.4.1 Density of GVC Backbone 257 11.4.2 Centralization of GVC Backbone 259 11.4.3 Global Efficiency of GVC Backbone 260 11.5 Empirical Analysis II: Evolutionary Mechanism of Globalization 261 11.5.1 Overall Statistics 263 11.5.2 Industrial Convergence 264 11.5.3 Mega-Merger Tendency 266 11.5.4 Industrial Agglomeration 267 11.5.5 Niche Advantage 267 11.6 Summary 268 Chapter 12 Depict the Nested Structure of Production System 270 12.1 Introduction 271 12.2 Modeling 272 12.3 Measurement 274 12.3.1 Sorting Methods 274 12.3.2 Nestedness Quantification 275 12.4 Statistical Analysis 278 12.4.1 Divergence Analysis 278 12.4.2 Trend Analysis 280 12.4.3 Robustness Analysis 282 12.4.4 Evolutionary Mechanism 284 12.5 Econometric Analysis 285 12.5.1 Correlation between Variables 286 12.5.2 Regression Model 290 12.6 Empirical Analysis II: Brexit’s Impact on European Nations 297 12.6.1 Brexit 297 12.6.2 Simulation Setting 298 12.6.3 Results and Discussions 298 12.7 Empirical Analysis II: RCEP’s Economic Significance to Relevant Nations 301 12.7.1 RCEP 301 12.7.2 Simulation Setting 302 12.7.3 Results and Discussions 302 12.8 Summary 307 Part VI Causal Inference 309 Chapter 13 Connect the Structural Features and Economic Status 310 13.1 Introduction 310 13.2 Literature Review 311 13.3 Econometric Model 312 13.4 Hypotheses 313 13.4.1 Hypothesis Formulation 313 13.4.2 Hypothesis Testing 314 13.5 Results and Discussions 316 13.5.1 The Effects of Structural Capital 316 13.5.2 The Effects of Relational Capital 318 13.5.3 The Effects of Cognitive Capital 319 13.6 Summary 320 Postscript 321 Appendix 323 References 337
Preface1Part I Background3Chapter 1 Fundamental Issues in This Book41.1 Concept of Econophysics41.2 Purpose of Book41.3 Literature Review51.3.1 Industrial Complex Network61.3.2 Global Value Chain71.3.3 Input-Output Network81.4 Data Structure101.4.1 Advantage of IO Table101.4.2 Available ICIO Database101.4.3 Hierarchy of Economies141.4.4 Classification of Industrial Sectors241.5 ICIO Network Model241.6 Summary30Part II Topological Structure32Chapter 2 Recognize the Trade Roles of Industrial Sectors332.1 Introduction332.2 Definition342.2.1 Trade Types on the GVC342.2.2 Decomposition of Trade Roles362.3 Measurement382.3.1 Statistical Inference on TBPs382.3.2 Measurment of Dependency402.4 Empirical Analysis: Economies' Two Sorts of Dependence on Foreign Trade412.4.1 Statistics on All Economies422.4.2 Significance of Dual Circulation432.4.3 Economic Meanings of Network-Based Dependency452.5 Summary47Chapter 3 Probe the Industrial Linkages Reasonably and Effectively483.1 Introduction483.2 Methodology493.2.1 Path Issue in Similarity-Weight Network493.2.2 Revised Floyd-Warshall Algorithm503.2.3 Theoretical Basis of SRPL in GIVCN Model523.2.4 Computation of SRPL in Consideration of Self-Loops553.3 Empirical Analysis: Fragments of GVC573.3.1 Single-Tuple Motif573.3.2 Double-Tuple Motif583.3.3 Triple-Tuple Motif603.4 Summary65Chapter 4 Find the Vital Industrial Sectors and IO Relations664.1 Introduction664.2 Measurement674.2.1 Average/Maximum Strongest Relevance Degree674.2.2 Betweenness Centrality of Node684.2.3 Betweenness Centrality of Edge704.2.4 Closeness Centrality of Node714.3 Connectedness/Compactness of NVC734.4 Pivotability of Industrial Sectors774.4.1 Overall Statistics774.4.2 Cross-National Analysis784.4.3 Robustness Analysis814.5 Pivotability of IO Relations824.5.1 Heterogeneity of Pivotability824.5.2 Domestic Pivotability864.5.3 International Pivotability874.5.4 Global Pivotability894.6 Coordinates of Industrial Sectors914.6.1 Overall Statistics914.6.2 Time-Series Analysis954.6.3 Cross-Country Analysis994.6.4 Cross-Sector Analysis1044.7 Comparison with Similar Studies1084.8 Summary108Part III Markov Process111Chapter 5 Measure the Global Impact of Industrial Sectors1125.1 Introduction1125.2 Methodology1125.2.1 Features of Value Stream in Economic System1125.2.2 Industrial Impact on the GVC1135.2.3 Structural Holes Theory in Dynamic Network1145.3 Measurement1155.3.1 Random Walk Centrality1165.3.2 Global Industrial Impact Coefficient1175.4 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast1175.4.1 Comparative Analysis with Classic IO Theory1175.4.2 Robustness Analysis1205.4.3 Statistics on Major Economies1255.4.4 Geographical Distribution of GIIC1295.4.5 Correlation Analysis with GDP1315.5 Summary132Chapter 6 Measure the Impact of Final Demands on the Global Production System1346.1 Introduction1346.2 Measurement1346.2.1 Counting First Passage Betweenness1346.2.2 Global Demand Dependence Index1366.3 Empirical Analysis: Macroeconomic Trend Forecast1366.3.1 Robustness Analysis1366.3.2 The Econometric Analysis of Import/Export and GDDI1386.3.3 Statistics on the Global Level1426.3.4 Statistics on the Sectoral Level1436.4 Discussion1466.4.1 Economic Difference between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics1466.4.2 Intrinsic Relationship of Dynamic Metrics1476.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Static Metrics and Dynamic Metrics1486.5 Summary150Chapter 7 Industrially Economic Impacts of Trump Administration's Trade Policy toward China1527.1 Bibliometrics on Sino-US Trade War1527.2 Decomposition of GIIC1587.3 Decomposition of GDDI1607.4 Regression Analysis1637.5 Simulation on the Year of 20201657.6 Conclusion167Part IV Competition and Collaboration170Chapter 8 Quantify the Competitive Strength and Weakness of Economies1718.1 Introduction1718.2 Methodology1728.2.1 Bipartite Graph1728.2.2 Resource Allocation Process1738.3 Modeling1768.3.1 Database Selection1768.3.2 Modeling Framework1768.3.3 GIVCNBG Model1788.3.4 GIRCN Model1808.4 Measurement1818.4.1 Sector-Level Indices1818.4.2 Country-Level Indices1838.4.3 Correlation with GDP1858.5 Empirical Analysis: Competitive Strength of TPP-Related Nations1878.5.1 Time-Series Analysis on TPP-Relat ed Nations1888.5.2 Simulation on International Trade Policy1928.6 Summary195Chapter 9 Quantify the Collaborative Opportunity and Threat of Economies2019.1 Introduction2019.2 Methodology2029.3 Modeling2049.3.1 Database Selection2049.3.2 GPCCN Model2079.4 Measurement2119.4.1 Sector-Level Indices2119.4.2 Country-Level Indices2129.4.3 Correlation Analysis between Competitive Strengths and Collaborative Opportunities2159.5 Empirical Analysis: Collaborative Opportunity of BRI-Related Nations2169.5.1 Simulation on Asian Nations2179.5.2 Simulation on European Nations2229.5.3 Simulation on African Nations2269.5.4 Results and Discussions2309.6 Summary231Part V Evolutionary Mechanism233Chapter 10 Extract the Backbone of Global Value Chain23410.1 Introduction23410.2 Formal Problem Setting23510.2.1 Global Threshold23610.2.2 Disparity Filter23610.3 Proposed Algorithms23710.3.1 Searching Paths23810.3.2 Filtering Edges23810.3.3 Mixed Strategy24010.4 Results and Discussions24110.4.1 Preservation of Structural Information24210.4.2 Preservation of Functional Information24410.5 Summary246Chapter 11 Identify the Worldwide Industrial Transfer Pattern24711.1 Introduction24711.1.1 Neoclassical School24811.1.2 Behavioral School24811.1.3 Institutional School24811.2 Methodology24911.2.1 Econometric Model in Industrial Economics24911.2.2 Link Prediction in Complex Networks25011.3 Framework25111.3.1 GISRN Model25111.3.2 Training and Evaluation Metrics25211.3.3 Link Prediction Indices25311.3.4 Accuracy of Prediction Algorithms25611.4 Empirical Analysis I: Evolutionary Characteristics of Globalization25711.4.1 Density of GVC Backbone25711.4.2 Centralization of GVC Backbone25911.4.3 Global Efficiency of GVC Backbone26011.5 Empirical Analysis II: Evolutionary Mechanism of Globalization26111.5.1 Overall Statistics26311.5.2 Industrial Convergence26411.5.3 Mega-Merger Tendency26611.5.4 Industrial Agglomeration26711.5.5 Niche Advantage26711.6 Summary268Chapter 12 Depict the Nested Structure of Production System27012.1 Introduction27112.2 Modeling27212.3 Measurement27412.3.1 Sorting Methods27412.3.2 Nestedness Quantification27512.4 Statistical Analysis27812.4.1 Divergence Analysis27812.4.2 Trend Analysis28012.4.3 Robustness Analysis28212.4.4 Evolutionary Mechanism28412.5 Econometric Analysis28512.5.1 Correlation between Variables28612.5.2 Regression Model29012.6 Empirical Analysis II: Brexit's Impact on European Nations29712.6.1 Brexit29712.6.2 Simulation Setting29812.6.3 Results and Discussions29812.7 Empirical Analysis II: RCEP's Economic Significance to Relevant Nations30112.7.1 RCEP30112.7.2 Simulation Setting30212.7.3 Results and Discussions30212.8 Summary307Part VI Causal Inference309Chapter 13 Connect the Structural Features and Economic Status31013.1 Introduction31013.2 Literature Review31113.3 Econometric Model31213.4 Hypotheses31313.4.1 Hypothesis Formulation31313.4.2 Hypothesis Testing31413.5 Results and Discussions31613.5.1 The Effects of Structural Capital31613.5.2 The Effects of Relational Capital31813.5.3 The Effects of Cognitive Capital31913.6 Summary320Postscript321Appendix323References337