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As head FX strategist at CMC Markets one of the world's leading forex/commodity brokers Ashraf Laidi understands the forces shaping today's currency market and their interplay with interest rates, equities, and commodities. And now, with Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis, he shares his extensive experiences in this field with you. Throughout the book, Laidi outlines the tools needed to understand the macroeconomic and financial nuances of this dynamic field and provides you with insights that are essential to making the most of your time within it.
As head FX strategist at CMC Markets one of the world's leading forex/commodity brokers Ashraf Laidi understands the forces shaping today's currency market and their interplay with interest rates, equities, and commodities. And now, with Currency Trading and Intermarket Analysis, he shares his extensive experiences in this field with you. Throughout the book, Laidi outlines the tools needed to understand the macroeconomic and financial nuances of this dynamic field and provides you with insights that are essential to making the most of your time within it.
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Autorenporträt
Ashraf Laidi is the head FX Strategist at CMC Markets, where he oversees the analysis and forecasting functions of G-10 currency pairs as well as decisions and trends of the major global central banks. His online FX analysis has received wide following for more than a decade, centering on G-10 currencies and economies. Prior to joining CMC, Laidi monitored the performance of a multi-FX portfolio at the United Nations, assessed sovereign and project investment risk for Hagler Bailly and the World Bank, and analyzed emerging market bonds at Reuters. He also created the first 24-hour currency Web site for traders and researchers during the inception of the Euro. He is the founder of AshrafLaidi.com.
Inhaltsangabe
Foreword xi Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar 1 End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff 2 Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally 3 Central Banks' Gold Sale Agreements 5 Gold-USD Inverse Relation 6 Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule 6 Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards 8 Gold's Secular Performance 11 Valuing Currencies via Gold 13 Golden Correlations 14 Don't Forget Falling Gold Production 16 Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets 16 Equity-to-Gold Ratios 19 TheRoleoftheSpeculators 21 Gold Is Part of a Larger Story 22 Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market 25 From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s) 26 Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986) 32 The Super Dollar of 1980-1984: The World's Third Oil Shock 34 World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987) 39 Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991) 41 The Asian Crisis and OPEC's Miscalculation (1997-1998) 44 Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000) 46 Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present) 46 Summary 49 Chapter 3 When the Dollar Was King (1999-2001) 51 The Major Theories 52 Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies 53 Summary 70 Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Awakens (2002-2007) 71 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market 71 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar 78 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar 84 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge 90 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening 94 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback 102 Lessons Learned 108 Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets 111 Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange 112 Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows 121 Tying It All Together: 1999-2007 134 Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities 137 Yield Curves and the Economy 138 Types of Yield Curves 139 Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications 142 Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals' Implications 142 Greenspan's "Conundrum" Proved Bernanke's Problem 143 Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies 145 Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio 153 Conclusion 158 Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar 161 The U.S. Twin Deficits 162 U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges 165 Adding the Budget Balance to the mix 169 Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability? 170 Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows 172 U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money 173 Capital Flows Shift Identities 177 Foreign Direct Investment and M&As 179 How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap? 181 Don't Ignore U.S. Investors' Flows Abroad 182 Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East 185 Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable 187 The View Ahead 189 Chapter 8 Commodities Supercycles and Currencies 191 The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles 193 Dissecting Commodity Classes 196 Commodities and their Currencies 207 Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains 208 Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil 214 Copper and Gold to Shine on Long-Term Fundamentals 219 Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles? 223 Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange 225 Revisiting Yield Curves 225 Is Dollar Stability a Necessity? 230 How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities? 236 U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar 240 Conclusion 247 Bibliography 249 About the Author 251 Index 253
Foreword xi Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii Chapter 1 Gold and the Dollar 1 End of Bretton Woods System Marks Gold's Takeoff 2 Fed Tightening and FX Interventions Rein in Gold Rally 3 Central Banks' Gold Sale Agreements 5 Gold-USD Inverse Relation 6 Recent Exceptions to the Inverse Rule 6 Using Gold to Identify Currency Leaders and Laggards 8 Gold's Secular Performance 11 Valuing Currencies via Gold 13 Golden Correlations 14 Don't Forget Falling Gold Production 16 Gold and Equities: Hard versus Monetary Assets 16 Equity-to-Gold Ratios 19 TheRoleoftheSpeculators 21 Gold Is Part of a Larger Story 22 Chapter 2 Oil Fundamentals in the Currency Market 25 From a Gold Standard to an Oil Standard (1970s-1980s) 26 Oil Glut and Price Collapse (1981-1986) 32 The Super Dollar of 1980-1984: The World's Third Oil Shock 34 World Intervenes against Strong Dollar (1985-1987) 39 Iraq's Invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (1990-1991) 41 The Asian Crisis and OPEC's Miscalculation (1997-1998) 44 Oil Thrives on World Growth, Dot-Com Boom (1999-2000) 46 Iraq War Fuels Oil Rally, Dollar Flounders, China Takes Over (2002 to Present) 46 Summary 49 Chapter 3 When the Dollar Was King (1999-2001) 51 The Major Theories 52 Annual Performance Analysis of Individual Currencies 53 Summary 70 Chapter 4 The Dollar Bear Awakens (2002-2007) 71 2002: The Beginning of the Dollar Bear Market 71 2003: Dollar Extends Damage, Commodity Currencies Soar 78 2004: Global Recovery Boosts Currencies against U.S. Dollar 84 2005: Commodities Soar alongside Dollar, Carry Trades Emerge 90 2006: Dollar Vulnerable as Fed Ends Two-Year Tightening 94 2007: Record Oil Boosts Loonie, Helpless Fed Hits Greenback 102 Lessons Learned 108 Chapter 5 Risk Appetite in the Markets 111 Carry Trades in Foreign Exchange 112 Using Risk Appetite to Gauge FX Flows 121 Tying It All Together: 1999-2007 134 Chapter 6 Reading the Fed via Yield Curves, Equities, and Commodities 137 Yield Curves and the Economy 138 Types of Yield Curves 139 Rationale of Inverted Yield Curve Implications 142 Effectiveness of Yield Curve Signals' Implications 142 Greenspan's "Conundrum" Proved Bernanke's Problem 143 Implications for Growth, Stocks, and Currencies 145 Tying Interest Rates to the Gold-Oil Ratio 153 Conclusion 158 Chapter 7 U.S. Imbalances, FX Reserve Diversification, and the U.S. Dollar 161 The U.S. Twin Deficits 162 U.S. Current Account Deficit: Old Problem, New Challenges 165 Adding the Budget Balance to the mix 169 Financing the Deficits: The Path to Unsustainability? 170 Dissecting U.S.-Bound Foreign Capital Flows 172 U.S. Stocks and Bonds Vie for Foreign Money 173 Capital Flows Shift Identities 177 Foreign Direct Investment and M&As 179 How Long Will Foreign Capital Be Available on the Cheap? 181 Don't Ignore U.S. Investors' Flows Abroad 182 Currency Reserve Diversification: OPEC and the Middle East 185 Further Currency Diversification Is Inevitable 187 The View Ahead 189 Chapter 8 Commodities Supercycles and Currencies 191 The Current Commodity Cycle versus Previous Cycles 193 Dissecting Commodity Classes 196 Commodities and their Currencies 207 Developing World to Maintain Ripe Outlook for Food and Grains 208 Energy Efficiency Not Enough to Halt High Oil 214 Copper and Gold to Shine on Long-Term Fundamentals 219 Commanding Heights or Common Bubbles? 223 Chapter 9 Selected Topics in Foreign Exchange 225 Revisiting Yield Curves 225 Is Dollar Stability a Necessity? 230 How Far Will Commodities Outstrip Equities? 236 U.S. Politics and the U.S. Dollar 240 Conclusion 247 Bibliography 249 About the Author 251 Index 253
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