Hans G. Graf

Economic Forecasting for Management (eBook, PDF)

Possibilities and Limitations

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Before future-oriented information can be used as a basis for decision making in economics or business administration, it must be understood on a methodological level. This book provides decision makers with a thorough understanding of the possibilities offered by various forecasting methods as well as their limitations. If managers rely on a forecast with a long-term perspective to guide them in making short-term decisions, planning deficiencies will likely result. Likewise, if managers use short-term forecasts to inform their long-term strategic vision, failure could easily ensue. Graf provides the tools necessary to sidestep the common pitfall of using the wrong forecasting technique for the wrong purpose.

This is not a detailed examination of the mathematical and statistical tools of empirical economic research. Instead, forecasting methods are explained so that they can be understood by the managers who employ them in their decision making. Graf demonstrates that understanding and-in special cases-cooperation between forecast developers and users is crucial to creating an effective forecast that results in informed management decisions. He discusses traditional, long-term, macroeconomic, and global economic forecasting; the scenario technique as a central instrument of long-term forecasting; and short-term economic and market forecasting.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Bloomsbury Publishing Inc
• Seitenzahl: 264
• Altersempfehlung: ab 7 Jahre
• Erscheinungstermin: 30. August 2002
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9780313017414
• Artikelnr.: 68528519

Autorenporträt

HANS GEORG GRAF is President and CEO of the Center for Futures Research in St. Gallen, Switzerland, and Professor of Economics at the University of St. Gallen.

Inhaltsangabe

Preface Forecasting and Futures Research--an Unequal Pair Fundamentals of
Human Behavior Dimensions of Forecasting Evaluation Criteria The
Discrepancy between Reality and Forecast A Common Language Long-Term
Economic Forecasting Topic under Investigation and Information Sought The
Evolution of Economies Impossibility of (Long-term) Forecasting
Macro-Economic Perspectives Methods for Long-Term Forecasting Working with
Global Models--Learning and Forecasts Delphi Technique Cross Impact
Analysis Environmental Scenarios for Strategy Development Scenarios as a
Reflection of Integrated Management Scenarios as an Instrument of
Forecasting Working with Scenarios at the Company Level Introduction of the
Scenario Method in Company Policy Short-Term Economic and Market
Forecasting Topic under Investigation and Information Sought Economic
Forecasting Market Forecasting Forecasting on the Basis of Time Series
Analyses Operating with Growth and Life Cycle Curves Forecasts Based on the
Theory of Cause and Effect Transformation of Market Forecasts into Company
Decisions In Place of Closing Remarks: What Must Be Looked Out for in
Economic Forecasting? Bibliography Index