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Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 196. Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective examines recent developments in complexity science that provide a new approach to understanding extreme events. This understanding is critical to the development of strategies for the prediction of natural hazards and mitigation of their adverse consequences. The volume is a comprehensive collection of current developments in the understanding of extreme events. The following critical areas are highlighted: understanding extreme…mehr
Published by the American Geophysical Union as part of the Geophysical Monograph Series, Volume 196. Extreme Events and Natural Hazards: The Complexity Perspective examines recent developments in complexity science that provide a new approach to understanding extreme events. This understanding is critical to the development of strategies for the prediction of natural hazards and mitigation of their adverse consequences. The volume is a comprehensive collection of current developments in the understanding of extreme events. The following critical areas are highlighted: understanding extreme events, natural hazard prediction and development of mitigation strategies, recent developments in complexity science, global change and how it relates to extreme events, and policy sciences and perspective. With its overarching theme, Extreme Events and Natural Hazards will be of interest and relevance to scientists interested in nonlinear geophysics, natural hazards, atmospheric science, hydrology, oceanography, tectonics, and space weather.
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Autorenporträt
A. Surjalal Sharma University of Maryland, College Park UMD, UMCP, University of Maryland College Park · Goddard Planetary Heliophysics Institute. His main interests are Space Plasma Physics and Nonlinear Dynamics. Current efforts include magnetospheric physics, comets and stellar variability. Previously he has contributed to the theories of laboratory plasma devices at Cornell University, Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad, and Institute for Plasma Research, Gandhinagar, India.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface A. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, and Daniel N. Baker vii Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An Overview A. Surjalal Sharma, Daniel N. Baker, Archana Bhattacharyya, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, Harsh K. Gupta, Vijay K. Gupta, Shaun Lovejoy, Ian G. Main, Daniel Schertzer, Hans von Storch, and Nicholas W. Watkins 1 Section I: Solid Earth Earthquakes: Complexity and Extreme Events M. R. Yoder, D. L. Turcotte, and J. B. Rundle 17 Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability Development M. V. Rodkin 27 Characterizing Large Events and Scaling in Earthquake Models With Inhomogeneous Damage Rachele Dominguez, Kristy Tiampo, C. A. Serino, and W. Klein 41 Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping Before and After the 2004 Megathrust Earthquake in the Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone Sohini Roy, Uma Ghosh, Sugata Hazra, and J. R. Kayal 55 Stress Pulse Migration by Viscoelastic Process for Long-Distance Delayed Triggering of Shocks in Gujarat, India, After the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake B. K. Rastogi, Pallabee Choudhury, Rakesh Dumka, K. M. Sreejith, and T. J. Majumdar 63 Extreme Seismic Events in Models of Lithospheric Block-and-Fault Dynamics A. T. Ismail-Zadeh, J.-L. Le Mouël, and A. A. Soloviev 75 Section II: Oceans Investigation of Past and Future Polar Low Frequency in the North Atlantic Matthias Zahn and Hans von Storch 99 Variability of North Atlantic Hurricanes: Seasonal Versus Individual-Event Features Álvaro Corral and Antonio Turiel 111 Large-Scale Patterns in Hurricane-Driven Shoreline Change Eli D. Lazarus, Andrew D. Ashton, and A. Brad Murray 127 Section III: Atmosphere Precipitation and River Flow: Long-Term Memory and Predictability of Extreme Events Armin Bunde, Mikhail I. Bogachev, and Sabine Lennartz 139 Extreme Events and Trends in the Indian Summer Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy 153 Empirical Orthogonal Function Spectra of Extreme Temperature Variability Decoded From Tree Rings of the Western Himalayas R. K. Tiwari, R. R. Yadav, and K. P. C. Kaladhar Rao 169 On the Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Trends in Climate Records S. Lennartz and A. Bunde 177 Climate Subsystems: Pacemakers of Decadal Climate Variability Anastasios A. Tsonis 191 Dynamical System Exploration of the Hurst Phenomenon in Simple Climate Models O. J. Mesa, V. K. Gupta, and P. E. O'Connell 209 Low-Frequency Weather and the Emergence of the Climate S. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer 231 Section IV: Geospace Extreme Space Weather: Forecasting Behavior of a Nonlinear Dynamical System D. N. Baker 255 Supermagnetic Storms: Hazard to Society G. S. Lakhina, S. Alex, B. T. Tsurutani, and W. D. Gonzalez 267 Development of Intermediate-Scale Structure in the Nighttime Equatorial Ionosphere A. Bhattacharyya 279 Complex Analysis of Polar Auroras for 1996 James Wanliss and Joshua Peterson 293 On Self-Similar and Multifractal Models for the Scaling of Extreme Bursty Fluctuations in Space Plasmas N. W. Watkins, B. Hnat, and S. C. Chapman 299 Section V: General Extreme Value and Record Statistics in Heavy-Tailed Processes With Long-Range Memory Aicko Y. Schumann, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Jörn Davidsen 315 Extreme Event Recurrence Time Distributions and Long Memory M. S. Santhanam 335 Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom-Up, Resource-Based Vulnerability Perspective Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rob Wilby, Dev Niyogi, Faisal Hossain, Koji Dairuku, Jimmy Adegoke, George Kallos, Timothy Seastedt, and Katharine Suding 345 AGU Category Index 361 Index 363
Preface A. Surjalal Sharma, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, and Daniel N. Baker vii Complexity and Extreme Events in Geosciences: An Overview A. Surjalal Sharma, Daniel N. Baker, Archana Bhattacharyya, Armin Bunde, Vijay P. Dimri, Harsh K. Gupta, Vijay K. Gupta, Shaun Lovejoy, Ian G. Main, Daniel Schertzer, Hans von Storch, and Nicholas W. Watkins 1 Section I: Solid Earth Earthquakes: Complexity and Extreme Events M. R. Yoder, D. L. Turcotte, and J. B. Rundle 17 Patterns of Seismicity Found in the Generalized Vicinity of a Strong Earthquake: Agreement With Common Scenarios of Instability Development M. V. Rodkin 27 Characterizing Large Events and Scaling in Earthquake Models With Inhomogeneous Damage Rachele Dominguez, Kristy Tiampo, C. A. Serino, and W. Klein 41 Fractal Dimension and b Value Mapping Before and After the 2004 Megathrust Earthquake in the Andaman-Sumatra Subduction Zone Sohini Roy, Uma Ghosh, Sugata Hazra, and J. R. Kayal 55 Stress Pulse Migration by Viscoelastic Process for Long-Distance Delayed Triggering of Shocks in Gujarat, India, After the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake B. K. Rastogi, Pallabee Choudhury, Rakesh Dumka, K. M. Sreejith, and T. J. Majumdar 63 Extreme Seismic Events in Models of Lithospheric Block-and-Fault Dynamics A. T. Ismail-Zadeh, J.-L. Le Mouël, and A. A. Soloviev 75 Section II: Oceans Investigation of Past and Future Polar Low Frequency in the North Atlantic Matthias Zahn and Hans von Storch 99 Variability of North Atlantic Hurricanes: Seasonal Versus Individual-Event Features Álvaro Corral and Antonio Turiel 111 Large-Scale Patterns in Hurricane-Driven Shoreline Change Eli D. Lazarus, Andrew D. Ashton, and A. Brad Murray 127 Section III: Atmosphere Precipitation and River Flow: Long-Term Memory and Predictability of Extreme Events Armin Bunde, Mikhail I. Bogachev, and Sabine Lennartz 139 Extreme Events and Trends in the Indian Summer Monsoon V. Krishnamurthy 153 Empirical Orthogonal Function Spectra of Extreme Temperature Variability Decoded From Tree Rings of the Western Himalayas R. K. Tiwari, R. R. Yadav, and K. P. C. Kaladhar Rao 169 On the Estimation of Natural and Anthropogenic Trends in Climate Records S. Lennartz and A. Bunde 177 Climate Subsystems: Pacemakers of Decadal Climate Variability Anastasios A. Tsonis 191 Dynamical System Exploration of the Hurst Phenomenon in Simple Climate Models O. J. Mesa, V. K. Gupta, and P. E. O'Connell 209 Low-Frequency Weather and the Emergence of the Climate S. Lovejoy and D. Schertzer 231 Section IV: Geospace Extreme Space Weather: Forecasting Behavior of a Nonlinear Dynamical System D. N. Baker 255 Supermagnetic Storms: Hazard to Society G. S. Lakhina, S. Alex, B. T. Tsurutani, and W. D. Gonzalez 267 Development of Intermediate-Scale Structure in the Nighttime Equatorial Ionosphere A. Bhattacharyya 279 Complex Analysis of Polar Auroras for 1996 James Wanliss and Joshua Peterson 293 On Self-Similar and Multifractal Models for the Scaling of Extreme Bursty Fluctuations in Space Plasmas N. W. Watkins, B. Hnat, and S. C. Chapman 299 Section V: General Extreme Value and Record Statistics in Heavy-Tailed Processes With Long-Range Memory Aicko Y. Schumann, Nicholas R. Moloney, and Jörn Davidsen 315 Extreme Event Recurrence Time Distributions and Long Memory M. S. Santhanam 335 Dealing With Complexity and Extreme Events Using a Bottom-Up, Resource-Based Vulnerability Perspective Roger A. Pielke Sr., Rob Wilby, Dev Niyogi, Faisal Hossain, Koji Dairuku, Jimmy Adegoke, George Kallos, Timothy Seastedt, and Katharine Suding 345 AGU Category Index 361 Index 363
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