John Ross

Forecast for D-day (eBook, ePUB)

And the Weatherman behind Ike's Greatest Gamble

• Format: ePub

Produktbeschreibung

The weather story of D-Day in which the invasion's success hinged on the correct gauge of the weather for the crossing of the British Channel; the story of the man Eisenhower trusted with choosing the best day to invade, despite contrary opionions from more senior weather experts.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Globe Pequot
• Erscheinungstermin: 15. April 2014
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781493008483
• Artikelnr.: 41447401

Autorenporträt

By John Ross

Inhaltsangabe

Table of Contents Prologue - Whether the Weather: By late May, 1944, plans
for Operation Overlord, the Allied invasion of northwestern France, were
complete. Generals and admirals of the Supreme Headquarters Allied
Expeditionary Force (SHAEF) had drafted exquisite plans down to which
pillbox each platoon would assault. Shortly after midnight on D-day,
airborne regiments would drop behind the beaches of Normandy. Heavy bombers
would pound enemy emplacements. Landing craft would hover off shore, timed
to land soldiers at low tide just as dawn was breaking. That was the plan,
and SHAEF's commanders, led by General Dwight D. Eisenhower, were as
confident of its success as the title of their headquarters suggests. All
during May, southern England had enjoyed balmy weather lulling leaders to
believe it would continue through D-day. Yet in late May 4,000 miles over
Manitoba a dimple formed in the upper atmosphere, the precursor of storms
that would douse a forest fire in Maine and throw the schedule for D-day
into a cocked hat. Commanders worried about the weather. It was the one
element of the invasion they could not control. Since the evolution of
meteorology as a science in the mid-1800s, its reputation among the
military had been besmirched by suicide, scandal, and errant forecasts. So
deeply distrustful of weather predictions were several army and navy
commanders, that they took pride in the ability to "weather the weather"
whether they liked it or not. Chapter 1 - The Front: On a sheet torn from a
note pad soon after deciding to launch D-day, the greatest invasion the
world would ever see, Ike penciled the words he would read publicly if the
landings failed. For two years, the Allies had been pouring men, equipment,
and supplies into the United Kingdom. All was set to go on the night of
June 4. But observers on weather ships and stations in Greenland and
Iceland reported that fair weather had turned foul, putting the invasion at
risk. It fell to Ike's weatherman, James Martin Stagg to sort out
conflicting forecasts from the U. S. Air Force, Royal Navy, and the
civilian British Meteorological Office. Stagg was not a meteorologist but a
world renowned geophysicist. His appointment as SHAEF's chief weatherman
was roundly criticized on all sides. Operating in cramped quarters with his
deputy, Stagg had to get the forecast right. To err would result in the
greatest military debacle in modern history. Had D-day been a failure the
fate of the world as we know it could have been very different. The
Russians might well have occupied all of Germany. French communists would
have controlled its National Assembly. NATO would have been unlikely. Ike
would have been cashiered and never become president opening the door for
MacArthur who wanted to use nuclear weapons against China in the Korean
War. Chapter 2 - Polar Extremes: Stagg's task was to meld forecasts from
the US Air Force, the Royal Navy, and the British civilian Meteorological
Office up through the ranks of which he had risen over the past 20 years.
Each group of forecasters used different methodology to arrive at their
predictions. Professional jealousies among them were rife, but all were
united on one point: Stagg should never have been made Ike's weatherman.
The job should have gone to a professional meteorologist, meaning one of
them. As they bickered, storms threatening D-day were sweeping across the
Atlantic. When Stagg refused to accept the American view that the weather
on the night of June 4 would be suitable for the invasion, Col. Irving P.
Krick, its chief advocate who became a meteorologist to make money
preparing forecasts for Hollywood studios, attempted to end-run Stagg
through generals commanding US Air Forces. Had Ike listened to his generals
instead of Stagg, the invasion would have failed. Chapter 3 - The
Maritimes: In the northern hemisphere, weather moves from west to east.
Observations that the three weather offices used to make their forecasts
came from a few stations on the coast of Greenland where Allied and German
weathermen skirmished, on Coast Guard cutters wallowing in heavy Atlantic
swells as they steamed in endless circles, at Allied airfields in Iceland,
and from recordings made by solo weather reconnaissance flights a thousand
miles out to sea. Gathered under the most difficult conditions and compiled
by hand, weather data was always suspect. In the weather hut at SHAEF's
Advanced Headquarters, as plans for the invasion hang in the balance, two
Royal Navy ratings, Jean Farren and Harold Checketts, plot the data on
charts Stagg used to make his forecast. To Ike and his senior commanders,
Stagg reports deteriorating weather over the Atlantic. Ike, having taken
Stagg's measure over the past six months, trusts Stagg and decides to wait
to the last possible moment before deciding whether to go or postpone.
Chapter 4 - Unknown Allies: During the war, important weather data is being
gathered by all sides. After the war begins, Germans continue to use
international protocols for transmitting encoded weather information.
Recognizing the pattern of the data, British code breakers at Bletchley
Hall suspect it is related to the weather, which is confirmed when the
Royal Navy captured its first Enigma machine from a German weather ship
thus breaking the much vaunted code. US Air Force Col. Donald Yates,
Stagg's deputy, establishes weather stations in Russia. Though officially
neutral, Ireland signs a secret treaty with England to provide weather
data. Two postal clerks - Ted Sweeny and Maureen Flavin record weather
observations critical for D-day decisions on Blacksod Point on the far west
coast of County Mayo, a remote but critical outpost, where they fall in
love. Chapter 5 - High Pressure: To ease the strain when off watch, Royal
Navy ratings Farren and Checketts read Chinese poetry to each other. They
too fall in love. Stagg is plagued by anxiety as well and takes lonely
walks around Southwick estate debating pros and cons of styles of US Air
Force, Royal Navy, and Met Office forecasting centers. Americans are
sanguine that, based on their belief in the predictive power of 50 years of
daily weather maps, a ridge of high pressure will protect Normandy from the
rapidly advancing storm fronts. The Royal Navy and Met Office adamantly
disagree and the weather conference call at 0300 on 4 June is extremely
rancorous, with much argument and some personal invective. Stagg has one
hour to forge consensus among them on the forecast to present to Ike and
his commanders. Chapter 6 - Postpone: At 0415 on 4 June, Stagg and Yates
present a dreary forecast of wind, cloud, and seas well above the limits
set for invasion. Ike queries his commanders: Montgomery, in charge of all
ground forces is ready to go regardless of the weather. Adm. Ramsay, naval
supreme commander, believes he can put men ashore. Air forces commander
Leigh-Mallory opposes the launch because cloud and wind could make air
operations - where Allies reigned supreme - all but impossible. But the
ultimate fate of the invasion rests with one man: Ike decides to
tentatively postpone for 24 hours. Invasion fleet is halted but battered by
rough seas. Germans, seeing the approach of the same cold front, let down
their guard. Rommel returns to Germany for wife's birthday and a meeting
w/Hitler to plead for permission to deploy Panzers in the event of an
Allied landing. Most German commanders opt to attend war games, one steals
away to Paris for a weekend tryst with his paramour. Stagg and Yates return
to their tent as dawn, lovely and serene, is breaking. Chapter 7 - Glimmer
in the West: The two weathermen awake to a beautiful dawn on the morning of
June 4 and feel nauseated that their forecast was wrong. But by breakfast
time, clouds begin to fill the sky and thicken during the day. Jousting for
which weather central deserves credit for the postponement all but derails
the early afternoon weather conference call. Three hours later, when the
conference call reconvenes, observations from Blacksod Point and other
weather stations in Ireland convey that a strong front is passing and that
the weather will improve the next day. At 9:30 p.m., Ike holds firm to his
decision to postpone until the next commanders meeting at 4:15 a.m. on June
5. Stagg leaves the commanders with the feeling that the forecast will be
better tomorrow morning. All commanders eagerly hope so. If not, troop
transports that left their harbors when the invasion was scheduled for the
night of 4 June, will run out of oil and have to return to port with the
fleet snarled in unimaginable confusion. The next time tide conditions
allow for a launch is in mid-June. But, but a two-week delay ups the odds
that the Germans will discover that Normandy is the Allies' target. Chapter
8 - Go!: At 4:15 a.m. on 5 June, high winds and heavy rain pummels
Southwick House, yet Stagg's briefing to the supreme commanders confirms a
36-hour window of milder weather, still not ideal, for night of 5/6 June.
Ike says go. Though German meteorologists too see the break in weather, but
the German commanders' preconceived idea that the invasion could only come
at high tide lulls them into false security. Surprise is complete, though
weather hinders the invasion to be sure. Soldiers reeling from seasickness
and reeking of vomit prefer landing in the teeth of enemy fire to one more
moment on their landing craft. Bombers miss their targets. Wind scatters
the airborne assault. Waves sink amphibious tanks. Still D-day succeeds.
Chapter 9 - Gale of the Century: The fallback dates for D-day were 17 - 19
June. Though the Allies could have landed forces on the 17th and 18th, a
ferocious gale blew across the Bay of the Seine and onto Normandy on 19 and
20 June. Had Ike decided not to invade on 5/6 June and delayed for two
weeks, the critical post-landing buildup of men, heavy weapons, and
supplies to secure the beachhead would have been totally disrupted with the
prospect that Rommel would drive the invaders back into the sea. Epilogue -
The Hero and the Goat: After the war, Stagg becomes Principal Deputy
Director of the Met Office and, later, president of the Royal
Meteorological Society. Stagg is named a Companion in the Most Honourable
Order of the Bath. He wins international renown for his work in geophysics.
Krick returns to chair the meteorology department at CalTech, which fires
him for misuse of university property to further his private business
interests. He founds a private weather forecasting firm, which is sued when
contracts it has secured to make rain over desert communities fail. For
unprofessional practices, he is expelled from the American Meteorological
Society.