Arthur G. Cook

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry (eBook, ePUB)

Models for New Product and In-Market Forecasting and How to Use Them

• Format: ePub

Produktbeschreibung

Forecasting for the Pharmaceutical Industry is a definitive guide for forecasters as well as the multitude of decision makers and executives who rely on forecasts in their decision making. In virtually every decision, a pharmaceutical executive considers some type of forecast. This process of predicting the future is crucial to many aspects of the company - from next month's production schedule, to market estimates for drugs in the next decade. The pharmaceutical forecaster needs to strike a delicate balance between over-engineering the forecast - including rafts of data and complex 'black box' equations that few stakeholders understand and even fewer buy into - and an overly simplistic approach that relies too heavily on anecdotal information and opinion. Arthur G. Cook's highly pragmatic guide explains the basis of a successful balanced forecast for products in development as well as currently marketed products. The author explores the pharmaceutical forecasting process; the varied tools and methods for new product and in-market forecasting; how they can be used to communicate market dynamics to the various stakeholders; and the strengths and weaknesses of different forecast approaches. The text is liberally illustrated with tables, diagrams and examples. The final extended case study provides the reader with an opportunity to test out their knowledge. The second edition has been updated throughout and includes a brand new chapter focusing on specialized topics such as forecasting for orphan drugs and biosimilars.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Taylor & Francis
• Seitenzahl: 234
• Erscheinungstermin: 3. März 2016
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781317134107
• Artikelnr.: 44864834

Autorenporträt

Arthur G. Cook is a Principal with ZS, a management consulting firm specializing in the pharmaceutical industry. Previously he was Director of Global Forecasting for Syntex Pharmaceuticals. Art has been involved in pharmaceutical forecasting for over 30 years, has worked with many major pharmaceutical companies on their forecasting processes, and has created forecasts for over 150 therapy areas. He has written and presented widely on the subject of forecasting, portfolio management, market research, and pricing for the pharmaceutical industry.

Inhaltsangabe

Introduction. The Past and the Present: The inaccuracy of forecasting
Forecasting in the pharmaceutical industry
The present state: influences across functions
The time horizon for the forecast
In summary. The Forecasting Process: Define the forecast
Select a forecast method
Enable analytic insights
Present the results
Final considerations. New Product Forecasting: Tools and methods
New product forecast algorithm
Modeling the market
Forecasting the product
Converting patient to revenue
Final considerations. In-Market Forecasting: In-market product forecast algorithm
Trending historical data
Applying the effects of ex-trend events
Converting trended data into forecast outputs
Final considerations. Thoughts for the Future: Era of revitalization
Create stories, not spreadsheets
Hire a science fiction writer
Holistic forecasting. References. Appendices: Spreadsheets paper over real problems
Forecast techniques
Case study
Case study suggested solutions. Index.