Heuristics and Biases (eBook, PDF)

The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment
Redaktion: Gilovich, Thomas

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Is our case strong enough to go to trial? Will interest rates go up? Can I trust this person? Such questions - and the judgments required to answer them - are woven into the fabric of everyday experience. This book, first published in 2002, examines how people make such judgments. The study of human judgment was transformed in the 1970s, when Kahneman and Tversky introduced their 'heuristics and biases' approach and challenged the dominance of strictly rational models. Their work highlighted the reflexive mental operations used to make complex problems manageable and illuminated how the same processes can lead to both accurate and dangerously flawed judgments. The heuristics and biases framework generated a torrent of influential research in psychology - research that reverberated widely and affected scholarship in economics, law, medicine, management, and political science. This book compiles the most influential research in the heuristics and biases tradition since the initial collection of 1982 (by Kahneman, Slovic, and Tversky).

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Cambridge University Press
• Erscheinungstermin: 8. Juli 2002
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781139632799
• Artikelnr.: 52928249

Autorenporträt

Daniel Kahneman, geboren 1934 in Tel-Aviv, ist einer der weltweit einflussreichsten Kognitionspsychologen. Nach Stationen an der Hebrew University in Jerusalem und der University of British Columbia war er bis 1994 Professor an der University of California in Berkeley und hält seither die Eugene-Higgins-Professur für Psychologie an der Woodrow Wilson School der Princeton University. Kahnemann revolutionierte die Wissenschaft vom menschlichen Verhalten, indem er die Erkenntnisse der Hirnforschung und der Verhaltensbiologie zusammenführt und auf die Wirtschaftswissenschaften anwendet. Für seine Arbeit erhielt Kahneman zahlreiche Ehrenpreise namhafter Universitäten und wurde 2002 als erster Nicht-Ökonom mit dem Wirtschaftsnobelpreis ausgezeichnet.

Inhaltsangabe

Introduction: heuristics and biases then and now; Part I. Theoretical and
Empirical Extensions: 1. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the
conjunction fallacy in probability judgment; 2. Representativeness
revisited: attribute substitution in intuitive judgment; 3. How alike is it
versus how likely it is: a disjunction fallacy in probability judgments; 4.
Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a
disease: the mediating effect of ease of imagery; 5. The availability
heuristic revisited: ease of recall and content of recall as distinct
sources of information; 6. Incorporating the irrelevant: anchors in
judgments of belief and value; 7. Putting adjustment back in the anchoring
and adjustment heuristic: differential processing of self-generate and
experimenter-provided anchors; 8. Self anchoring in conversation: why
language users don't do what they 'should'; 9. Inferential correction; 10.
Mental contamination and the debiasing problem; 11. Sympathetic magical
thinking: the contagion and similarity 'heuristics'; 12. Compatibility
effects in judgment and choice; 13. The weighing of evidence and the
determinants of confidence; 14. Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and
consequences of optimistic time predictions; 15. Probability judgment
across cultures; 16. Durability bias in affective forecasting; 17.
Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions; 18.
Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions
in self-serving assessments of ability; 19. When predictions fail: the
dilemma of unrealistic optimism; 20. Norm theory: comparing reality to its
alternatives; 21. Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition: how to
avoid kicking yourself; Part II. New Theoretical Directions: 22. Two
systems of reasoning; 23. The affect heuristic; 24. Individual differences
in reasoning: implications for the rationality debate?; 25. Support theory:
a nonextensional representation of subjective probability; 26. Unpacking,
repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory; 27. Remarks on
support theory: recent advances and future directions; 28. The use of
statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning; 29. Feelings as
information: moods influence judgments and processing strategies; 30.
Automated choice heuristics; 31. How good are fast and frugal heuristics?;
32. Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors: exploring the
empirical implications of deviant functionalist metaphors; Part III. Real
World Applications: 33. The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of
random sequences; 34. Like goes with like: the role of representativeness
in erroneous and pseudoscientific beliefs; 35. When less is more:
counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists; 36.
Understanding misunderstanding: social psychological perspectives; 37.
Assessing uncertainty in physical constants; 38. Do analysts overreact?;
39. The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the
laboratory; 40. Clinical versus actuarial judgment; 41. Heuristics and
biases in application; 42. Theory driven reasoning about plausible pasts
and probable futures in world politics.

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Introduction: heuristics and biases then and now; Part I. Theoretical and Empirical Extensions: 1. Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment; 2. Representativeness revisited: attribute substitution in intuitive judgment; 3. How alike is it versus how likely it is: a disjunction fallacy in probability judgments; 4. Imagining can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: the mediating effect of ease of imagery; 5. The availability heuristic revisited: ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources of information; 6. Incorporating the irrelevant: anchors in judgments of belief and value; 7. Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic: differential processing of self-generate and experimenter-provided anchors; 8. Self anchoring in conversation: why language users don't do what they 'should'; 9. Inferential correction; 10. Mental contamination and the debiasing problem; 11. Sympathetic magical thinking: the contagion and similarity 'heuristics'; 12. Compatibility effects in judgment and choice; 13. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence; 14. Inside the planning fallacy: the causes and consequences of optimistic time predictions; 15. Probability judgment across cultures; 16. Durability bias in affective forecasting; 17. Resistance of personal risk perceptions to debiasing interventions; 18. Ambiguity and self-evaluation: the role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability; 19. When predictions fail: the dilemma of unrealistic optimism; 20. Norm theory: comparing reality to its alternatives; 21. Counterfactual thought, regret, and superstition: how to avoid kicking yourself; Part II. New Theoretical Directions: 22. Two systems of reasoning; 23. The affect heuristic; 24. Individual differences in reasoning: implications for the rationality debate?; 25. Support theory: a nonextensional representation of subjective probability; 26. Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: advances in support theory; 27. Remarks on support theory: recent advances and future directions; 28. The use of statistical heuristics in everyday inductive reasoning; 29. Feelings as information: moods influence judgments and processing strategies; 30. Automated choice heuristics; 31. How good are fast and frugal heuristics?; 32. Intuitive politicians, theologians, and prosecutors: exploring the empirical implications of deviant functionalist metaphors; Part III. Real World Applications: 33. The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences; 34. Like goes with like: the role of representativeness in erroneous and pseudoscientific beliefs; 35. When less is more: counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists; 36. Understanding misunderstanding: social psychological perspectives; 37. Assessing uncertainty in physical constants; 38. Do analysts overreact?; 39. The calibration of expert judgment: Heuristics and biases beyond the laboratory; 40. Clinical versus actuarial judgment; 41. Heuristics and biases in application; 42. Theory driven reasoning about plausible pasts and probable futures in world politics.

Rezensionen

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment; offers a massive, state-of-the-art treatment of the literature, supplementing a similar book published two decades ago...This is an impressive book, full of implications for law and policy." Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago Law School