What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future Redaktion: Centeno, Miguel; Patterson, Thayer; Larcey, Paul; Callahan, Peter
What History, Systems, and Complexity Can Teach Us About Our Modern World and Fragile Future Redaktion: Centeno, Miguel; Patterson, Thayer; Larcey, Paul; Callahan, Peter
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As our society confronts climate change, authoritarianism, and epidemics, what can examples from the past tell us about our present and future? This book studies societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmic adversity, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision making today.
As our society confronts climate change, authoritarianism, and epidemics, what can examples from the past tell us about our present and future? This book studies societies that either collapsed or overcame cataclysmicadversity, tracing patterns, strategies, and early warning signs that can inform decision making today.
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Miguel A. Centeno is Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University and Executive Vice Dean of Princeton University's School of Public and International Affairs. He is founder and co-director of the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies (PIIRS) Global Systemic Risk research community. Peter W. Callahan is a graduate of Princeton University who earned his MS in Geography and Environmental Studies from the University of New Mexico. He is a researcher at Princeton's PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research community where his scholarly interests include the study of socio-ecological systems, historical systemic risks, sustainable development, and renewable energy policy and technology. Paul A. Larcey is co-director of the PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research community at Princeton University. Larcey's work with the UK's innovation agency focuses on key emerging technologies including life sciences, quantum technologies, and AI. He has worked in corporate research, venture capital, and global industrial sectors at board and senior levels and studied engineering, materials science, and finance at London, Oxford, and Cambridge Universities. Thayer S. Patterson is coordinator and a founding member of the PIIRS Global Systemic Risk research community at Princeton University. Following his studies in economics and mechanical engineering at Yale, and finance at Princeton's Bendheim Center for Finance, his research has focused on the causes and consequences of catastrophic systemic risk.
Inhaltsangabe
Introduction
Section 1: Theory and Insights of Historical Collapse
1. Globalization and Fragility: A Systems Approach to Collapse Miguel A. Centeno, Peter W. Callahan, Paul A. Larcey, and Thayer S. Patterson
2. How Scholars Explain Collapse Joseph A. Tainter
3. Diminishing Returns on Extraction: How Inequality and Extractive Hierarchy Create Fragility Luke Kemp
4. Collapse, Recovery, and Existential Risk Haydn Belfield
Section 2: Historical and Archaeological Investigations of Collapse
5. "Mind the Gap": The 1177 BCE Late Bronze Age Collapse and Some Preliminary Thoughts on Its Immediate Aftermath Eric H. Cline
6. The End of "Peak Empire": The Collapse of the Roman, Han, and Jin Empires Walter Scheidel
7. Collapse and Non-collapse: The Case of Byzantium ca. 650-800 CE John Haldon
8. Fluctuat Nec Mergitur: Seven Centuries of Pueblo Crisis and Resilience Timothy A. Kohler, R. Kyle Bocinsky, and Darcy Bird
9. Episodes of the Feathered Serpent: Aztec Imperialism and Collapse Deborah L. Nichols and Ryan H. Collins
10. The Black Death: Collapse, Resilience, and Transformation Samuel K. Cohn, Jr
11. The Cases of Novgorod and Muscovy: Using Systems Thinking to Understand Historical Civilizational Response to Exogenous Threats Miriam Pollock, Benjamin D. Trump, and Igor Linkov
12. Resilience of the Simple? Lessons from the Blockade of Leningrad Jeffrey K. Hass
Section 3: Systemic Collapse Insights from Ecology, Climate, and the Environment
13. Climate Change and Tipping Points in Historical Collapse Timothy M. Lenton
14. Conservation of Fragility and the Collapse of Social Orders John M. Anderies and Simon A. Levin
15. Resilience and Collapse in Bee Societies and Communities Christina M. Grozinger and Harland M. Patch
Section 4: Future Systemic Collapse and Quantitative Modeling
16. Producing Collapse: Nuclear Weapons as Preparation to End Civilization Zia Mian and Benoît Pelopidas
17. From Wild West to Mad Max: Transition in Civilizations Richard Bookstaber
18. Phase Transitions and the Theory of Early Warning Indicators for Critical Transitions George I. Hagstrom and Simon A. Levin
19. The Lifespan of Civilizations: Do Societies "Age," or Is Collapse Just Bad Luck? Anders Sandberg
20. Multipath Forecasting: The Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis Peter Turchin
Section 1: Theory and Insights of Historical Collapse
1. Globalization and Fragility: A Systems Approach to Collapse Miguel A. Centeno, Peter W. Callahan, Paul A. Larcey, and Thayer S. Patterson
2. How Scholars Explain Collapse Joseph A. Tainter
3. Diminishing Returns on Extraction: How Inequality and Extractive Hierarchy Create Fragility Luke Kemp
4. Collapse, Recovery, and Existential Risk Haydn Belfield
Section 2: Historical and Archaeological Investigations of Collapse
5. "Mind the Gap": The 1177 BCE Late Bronze Age Collapse and Some Preliminary Thoughts on Its Immediate Aftermath Eric H. Cline
6. The End of "Peak Empire": The Collapse of the Roman, Han, and Jin Empires Walter Scheidel
7. Collapse and Non-collapse: The Case of Byzantium ca. 650-800 CE John Haldon
8. Fluctuat Nec Mergitur: Seven Centuries of Pueblo Crisis and Resilience Timothy A. Kohler, R. Kyle Bocinsky, and Darcy Bird
9. Episodes of the Feathered Serpent: Aztec Imperialism and Collapse Deborah L. Nichols and Ryan H. Collins
10. The Black Death: Collapse, Resilience, and Transformation Samuel K. Cohn, Jr
11. The Cases of Novgorod and Muscovy: Using Systems Thinking to Understand Historical Civilizational Response to Exogenous Threats Miriam Pollock, Benjamin D. Trump, and Igor Linkov
12. Resilience of the Simple? Lessons from the Blockade of Leningrad Jeffrey K. Hass
Section 3: Systemic Collapse Insights from Ecology, Climate, and the Environment
13. Climate Change and Tipping Points in Historical Collapse Timothy M. Lenton
14. Conservation of Fragility and the Collapse of Social Orders John M. Anderies and Simon A. Levin
15. Resilience and Collapse in Bee Societies and Communities Christina M. Grozinger and Harland M. Patch
Section 4: Future Systemic Collapse and Quantitative Modeling
16. Producing Collapse: Nuclear Weapons as Preparation to End Civilization Zia Mian and Benoît Pelopidas
17. From Wild West to Mad Max: Transition in Civilizations Richard Bookstaber
18. Phase Transitions and the Theory of Early Warning Indicators for Critical Transitions George I. Hagstrom and Simon A. Levin
19. The Lifespan of Civilizations: Do Societies "Age," or Is Collapse Just Bad Luck? Anders Sandberg
20. Multipath Forecasting: The Aftermath of the 2020 American Crisis Peter Turchin
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