John E. Boylan, Aris A. Syntetos

Intermittent Demand Forecasting (eBook, PDF)

Context, Methods and Applications

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

INTERMITTENT DEMAND FORECASTING The first text to focus on the methods and approaches of intermittent, rather than fast, demand forecasting Intermittent Demand Forecasting is for anyone who is interested in improving forecasts of intermittent demand products, and enhancing the management of inventories. Whether you are a practitioner, at the sharp end of demand planning, a software designer, a student, an academic teaching operational research or operations management courses, or a researcher in this field, we hope that the book will inspire you to rethink demand forecasting. If you do so, then you can contribute towards significant economic and environmental benefits. No prior knowledge of intermittent demand forecasting or inventory management is assumed in this book. The key formulae are accompanied by worked examples to show how they can be implemented in practice. For those wishing to understand the theory in more depth, technical notes are provided at the end of each chapter, as well as an extensive and up-to-date collection of references for further study. Software developments are reviewed, to give an appreciation of the current state of the art in commercial and open source software. "Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the bible of the field." --Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC). "We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management." --Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder. "As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective." --Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: John Wiley & Sons
• Seitenzahl: 400
• Erscheinungstermin: 3. Juni 2021
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781119135296
• Artikelnr.: 62078604

Autorenporträt

John E. Boylan is Professor of Business Analytics at Lancaster University, an Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of the Operational Research Society, and President of the International Society for Inventory Research. Aris A. Syntetos is Professor of Operational Research and Operations Management at Cardiff University, an Editor-in-Chief of the IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters.

Inhaltsangabe

Preface xix

Glossary xxi

About the Companion Website xxiii

1 Economic and Environmental Context 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Economic and Environmental Benefits 3

1.2.1 After-sales Industry 3

1.2.2 Defence Sector 4

1.2.3 Economic Benefits 5

1.2.4 Environmental Benefits 5

1.2.5 Summary 6

1.3 Intermittent Demand Forecasting Software 6

1.3.1 Early Forecasting Software 6

1.3.2 Developments in Forecasting Software 6

1.3.3 Open Source Software 7

1.3.4 Summary 7

1.4 About this Book 7

1.4.1 Optimality and Robustness 7

1.4.2 Business Context 8

1.4.3 Structure of the Book 9

1.4.4 Current and Future Applications 10

1.4.5 Summary 10

1.5 Chapter Summary 11

Technical Note 11

2 Inventory Management and Forecasting 13

2.1 Introduction 13

2.2 Scheduling and Forecasting 13

2.2.1 Material Requirements Planning (MRP) 13

2.2.2 Dependent and Independent Demand Items 14

2.2.3 Make to Stock 15

2.2.4 Summary 15

2.3 Should an Item Be Stocked at All? 15

2.3.1 Stock/Non-Stock Decision Rules 16

2.3.2 Historical or Forecasted Demand? 18

2.3.3 Summary 18

2.4 Inventory Control Requirements 19

2.4.1 How Should Stock Records be Maintained? 19

2.4.2 When are Forecasts Required for Stocking Decisions? 22

2.4.3 Summary 24

2.5 Overview of Stock Rules 25

2.5.1 Continuous Review Systems 25

2.5.2 Periodic Review Systems 26

2.5.3 Periodic Review Policies 28

2.5.4 Variations of the (R, S) Periodic Policy 29

2.5.5 Summary 30

2.6 Chapter Summary 30

Technical Notes 31

3 Service Level Measures 33

3.1 Introduction 33

3.2 Judgemental Ordering 34

3.2.1 Rules of Thumb for the Order-Up-To Level 34

3.2.2 Judgemental Adjustment of Orders 34

3.2.3 Summary 35

3.3 Aggregate Financial and Service Targets 35

3.3.1 Aggregate Financial Targets 36

3.3.2 Service Level Measures 36

3.3.3 Relationships Between Service Level Measures 38

3.3.4 Summary 39

3.4 Service Measures at SKU Level 39

3.4.1 Cost Factors 39

3.4.2 Understanding of Service Level Measures 40

3.4.3 Potential Service Level Measures 40

3.4.4 Choice of Service Level Measure 41

3.4.5 Summary 42

3.5 Calculating Cycle Service Levels 42

3.5.1 Distribution of Demand Over One Time Period 43

3.5.2 Cycle Service Levels Based on All Cycles 44

3.5.3 Cycle Service Levels Based on Cycles with Demand 45

3.5.4 Summary 47

3.6 Calculating Fill Rates 48

3.6.1 Unit Fill Rates 48

3.6.2 Fill Rates: Standard Formula 49

3.6.3 Fill Rates: Sobel's Formula 51

3.6.4 Summary 53

3.7 Setting Service Level Targets 53

3.7.1 Responsibility for Target Setting 53

3.7.2 Trade-off Between Service and Cost 54

3.7.3 Setting SKU Level Service Targets 55

3.7.4 Summary 56

3.8 Chapter Summary 56

Technical Note 57

4 Demand Distributions 59

4.1 Introduction 59

4.2 Estimation of Demand Distributions 60

4.2.1 Empirical Demand Distributions 60

4.2.2 Fitted Demand Distributions 62

4.2.3 Summary 64

4.3 Criteria for Demand Distributions 64

4.3.1 Empirical Evid

Rezensionen

"Intermittent demand forecasting may seem like a specialized area but actually is at the center of sustainability efforts to consume less and to waste less. Boylan and Syntetos have done a superb job in showing how improvements in inventory management are pivotal in achieving this. Their book covers both the theory and practice of intermittent demand forecasting and my prediction is that it will fast become the 'bible' of the field."
--Spyros Makridakis, Professor, University of Nicosia, and Director, Institute for the Future and the Makridakis Open Forecasting Center (MOFC)

"We have been able to support our clients by adopting many of the ideas discussed in this excellent book, and implementing them in our software. I am sure that these ideas will be equally helpful for other supply chain software vendors and for companies wanting to update and upgrade their capabilities in forecasting and inventory management."
--Suresh Acharya, VP, Research and Development, Blue Yonder

"As product variants proliferate and the pace of business quickens, more and more items have intermittent demand. Boylan and Syntetos have long been leaders in extending forecasting and inventory methods to accommodate this new reality. Their book gathers and clarifies decades of research in this area, and explains how practitioners can exploit this knowledge to make their operations more efficient and effective."
--Thomas R. Willemain, Professor Emeritus, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute