Ofira Seliktar

Politics, Paradigms, and Intelligence Failures (eBook, PDF)

Why So Few Predicted the Collapse of the Soviet Union

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

Washington's failure to foresee the collapse of its superpower rival ranks high in the pantheon of predictive failures. Drawing on declassified documents, interviews, and contemporaneous literature, this book analyses this predictive failure at the paradigmatic, foreign policy, and intelligence levels.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Taylor & Francis
• Seitenzahl: 296
• Erscheinungstermin: 20. Mai 2015
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781317462446
• Artikelnr.: 42900895

Autorenporträt

Ofira Seliktar earned a bachelor's degree in political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and completed her doctorate in political science at the University of Strathclyde, in Glasgow. She teaches at Gratz College and Temple University and is the author of several books and many articles on the Middle East and predictive failures in intelligence. Failing the Crystal Ball Test: The Carter Administration and the Fundamentalist Revolution in Iran (2000) explores the American failure to predict the Khomeini revolution. Seliktar is currently working on a study of the politics of prediction and the war in Iraq.

Inhaltsangabe

Introduction
Chapter 1 Theories of Political Change and Prediction of Change
Chapter 2 Oligarchic Petrification or Pluralistic Transformation
Chapter 3 Paradigms and the Debate on Relations with the Soviet Union
Chapter 4 The Reagan Administration and the Soviet Interregnum
Chapter 5 Acceleration
Chapter 6 Perestroika
Chapter 7 The Unintended Consequences of Radical Transformation
Chapter 8 Reflections on Predictive Failures