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There is a fair number of stand alone applications as well as add on's to Microsoft Excel in the market used to run Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) models. However, out of the box, Excel has all the functions you need to develop such models. What is needed are robust modeling procedures, techniques and analytic formulations. Initially, I started with one book. This grew out of proportion as more and more applications and models were identified. Some of these had not been modeled with MCS before. I had to break the book into two parts.Part 1 presents the basics of modeling always providing methods…mehr

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Produktbeschreibung
There is a fair number of stand alone applications as well as add on's to Microsoft Excel in the market used to run Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) models. However, out of the box, Excel has all the functions you need to develop such models. What is needed are robust modeling procedures, techniques and analytic formulations. Initially, I started with one book. This grew out of proportion as more and more applications and models were identified. Some of these had not been modeled with MCS before. I had to break the book into two parts.Part 1 presents the basics of modeling always providing methods and typical models as applications of simulation. Part 1 also spends time on clarifying different ways of analyzing the simulation output using a variety of statistical functions and procedures all found within Excel. The eBook clarifies a variety of Excel facilities needed in different parts of simulation: sensitivity analysis, linear regression and the Analysis Toolpack. Finally, Part 1 presents a few standard modeling techniques that can be used in a variety of models, specifically in Part 2.Part 2 concentrates on applications such as project management, acceptance sampling, sales and budget forecasting, queuing models, reliability engineering and more. Since these operations behave according to specific statistical distributions, time is spent on clarifying a variety of these functions. When one or two are not available in Excel, alternative methods of computation are presented. A special chapter addresses Markov Processes and shows how simulation can be coupled to such an analysis.The uses and applications of statistical distributions in these operations are addressed in depth. Having covered Uniform, Normal and Discrete Distributions in Part 1, Part 2 proceeds to present and give applications for the following distributions: binomial, negative binomial, geometric, hypergeometric, triangular (not commonly used but is the basis as to why betaPERT is preferred), Poisson, exponential, Gamma and Weibull.No programming is required although in one single case, an embedded VBA module is included. It is used to formulate a method that allows the analyst to develop a two level simulation. To get the results of each of the primary runs in the model, the model runs a further "e;sub-simulation"e;. No VBA competence is required.The two eBooks come with 21 and 54 step by step models, respectively, and with supporting images. Whenever statistical functions are used, they are fully clarified using a common sense and non-theoretical approach. All the workouts are solved and are available for download from this page.

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Autorenporträt
Akram Najjar is an engineer currently working as a Business Technology Consultant. He completed a B. Sc. in physics and mathematics at the American University of Beirut, Lebanon (1966). He took another B. Sc. in Electrical and Electronic Engineering from the University of Hertfordshire in England (1969).Akram spent the first part of his career managing software development companies in Lebanon and the Arabian Gulf. By 1995, he concentrated on contractual work: IT Consulting, Business Process Reengineering, Project Management, Process Mapping, Data Analysis, Frameworks for Software Development and Technical Writing. He worked with various international organizations such as the World Bank, UNDP and the EU. In parallel with his consulting work, Akram focused on management training developing and conducting workshops for the above subjects. This and other books on his site are based on the experience acquired in these workshops.The three types of books Akram writes (fiction, technical and puzzles) can be traced back to one incident when he was 12. His teacher introduced him to "Scientific American". His name was David W. Miller. Mr. Miller's whereabouts are not known today. But he is to be thanked and thanked again. The articles were above Akram's head but his love for astronomy made the magazine fascinating. That eventually led him to study Physics and Mathematics. Coincidentally, the Greek Myths that were used to name the constellations got him interested in Literature, a love that led him to write fiction at a later date.Akram also got hooked on the Mathematical Games column by Martin Gardner which was the reason Akram was set firmly in Puzzledom. Later on, it was second nature to him to work in software as a career. Software is an abstract practice that is full of puzzles whether you are designing, programming or debugging.His eBooks are presented on two website. The marginalbooks.com site covers technical and literary books. All puzzles and games are presented on thehiddenpaw.com.