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There is a seasonal bias to the stock market, and by paying attention to the seasonal market tendencies you can gain an edge in the stock market over the long haul. Seasonality offers a practical approach to investing and trading. What better way to learn how to employ seasonal systems than learning from Jay Kaeppel, a master in the analysis of seasonal trends? Kaeppel walks you through this phenomenon that continues to work consistently, providing you with his ultimate seasonal index to make the calendar work for you. Stock Market Seasonals provides a never-before-seen definitive guide that…mehr
There is a seasonal bias to the stock market, and by paying attention to the seasonal market tendencies you can gain an edge in the stock market over the long haul. Seasonality offers a practical approach to investing and trading. What better way to learn how to employ seasonal systems than learning from Jay Kaeppel, a master in the analysis of seasonal trends? Kaeppel walks you through this phenomenon that continues to work consistently, providing you with his ultimate seasonal index to make the calendar work for you. Stock Market Seasonals provides a never-before-seen definitive guide that illustrates how to utilize a combination of four basic seasonal tendencies in order to maximize returns.
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Autorenporträt
Jay Kaeppel (Naperville, IL)?is a successful trading strategist for Optionetics, Inc., and has a weekly column titled "Kaeppel's Corner" in which he writes on a variety of trading topics for www.Optionetics.com.? Jay has been profiled in Futures magazine, and Barclays Managed Accounts Report, and is author of The Four Biggest Mistakes in Futures Trading, Four Biggest Mistakes in Option Trading,?and The Option Trader's Guide to Probability, Volatility and Timing,?all of which have achieved the Top 10 List at www.traderslibrary.com. With 18 years of programming experience, Jay has written a variety of software programs, most notably "Option Pro" trading software, voted "Best Option Trading System" six consecutive years in Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities Magazine.? As Director of Research for Essex Trading Co., Ltd. (1989-2004), he served as a software developer and trading systems designer, and until 2003 he managed futures trading accounts as a CTA,?registering seven consecutive profitable years.? He earned his Bachelor of Business Administration degree from Western Illinois University in 1981.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface xi Chapter 1 Introduction to Seasonality in the Stock Market 1 The Concept of Seasons and Seasonality 2 What Is Seasonality? 5 The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonality 7 Measuring Market Performance throughout This Book 9 How to Trade the Dow 11 Seasonal Trends to Consider 14 Summing Up 18 Chapter 2 The Month of January 21 The First Five Days of January 22 The Last Five Days of January 25 The January Barometer 27 The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone System 29 The JayNewary Barometer 31 The Ultimate January Barometer System 38 The Effect of Compounding 42 A Few Words of Warning 46 Summing Up 47 Chapter 3 Holiday Seasonal Trends 49 The Holidays 50 The Trading Day before Each Holiday 51 Two Days before Each Holiday 52 Three Days before and after Each Holiday 54 The Best Holiday Trading Days 56 The Ultimate Holiday System 61 The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually) 63 Summing Up 65 Chapter 4 Monthly Seasonal Trends 67 The Best Day of the Month 68 The Trading Days of the Month 71 The Worst Trading Days of the Month 80 The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1) 81 The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2): The Month-End/New-Month Pattern 83 The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 89 Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rally 91 The Ultimate Monthly Days System 93 One Last Tweak 96 Summing Up 100 Chapter 5 Yearly Seasonal Trends 103 Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years) 104 Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years) 106 Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map) 110 Decennial Tendencies 111 Decade-by-Decade Performance 112 Intradecade Trends of Note 123 Intradecade Cycles Combined 130 Summing Up 136 Chapter 6 Repetitive Time Cycles of Note 139 The 212-Week Cycle 140 The 40-Week Cycle 146 The 53-Day Cycle 153 Combining Cycles 163 The Ultimate Time Cycles Model 168 Summing Up 172 Chapter 7 Election Cycle Investing 173 The Election Cycle: By the Years 175 The Election Cycle: By the Months 187 Two Other Patterns in the Election Cycle 205 The Ultimate Election Cycle System 210 Summing Up 214 Chapter 8 Sell in May and Go Away 219 November to May 220 What Is MACD? 225 Using MACD as a Filter 227 October through June for the Nasdaq 238 The Dead Zones 246 The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the World 260 October of Year 7 261 Summing Up 264 Chapter 9 Putting It All Together 267 Building Seasonal Trading Models 268 Building the KTI 271 Comparing Extreme KTI Readings 273 Model 1: The Long-Only Method 276 Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method 278 Model 3: Jay's Ultimate Seasonal Barometer 281 Summing Up 284 Index 291
Preface xi Chapter 1 Introduction to Seasonality in the Stock Market 1 The Concept of Seasons and Seasonality 2 What Is Seasonality? 5 The Pioneers of Stock Market Seasonality 7 Measuring Market Performance throughout This Book 9 How to Trade the Dow 11 Seasonal Trends to Consider 14 Summing Up 18 Chapter 2 The Month of January 21 The First Five Days of January 22 The Last Five Days of January 25 The January Barometer 27 The January Barometer as a Stand-Alone System 29 The JayNewary Barometer 31 The Ultimate January Barometer System 38 The Effect of Compounding 42 A Few Words of Warning 46 Summing Up 47 Chapter 3 Holiday Seasonal Trends 49 The Holidays 50 The Trading Day before Each Holiday 51 Two Days before Each Holiday 52 Three Days before and after Each Holiday 54 The Best Holiday Trading Days 56 The Ultimate Holiday System 61 The Most Wonderful Week of the Year (Usually) 63 Summing Up 65 Chapter 4 Monthly Seasonal Trends 67 The Best Day of the Month 68 The Trading Days of the Month 71 The Worst Trading Days of the Month 80 The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 1) 81 The Best Trading Days of the Month (Part 2): The Month-End/New-Month Pattern 83 The Most Wonderful Time of the Year 89 Monthly 10 Combined with the Santa Claus Rally 91 The Ultimate Monthly Days System 93 One Last Tweak 96 Summing Up 100 Chapter 5 Yearly Seasonal Trends 103 Decennial Patterns (Part 1: Ranking the Years) 104 Decennial Patterns (Part 2: The Best and Worst Years) 106 Decennial Patterns (Part 3: The Decennial Road Map) 110 Decennial Tendencies 111 Decade-by-Decade Performance 112 Intradecade Trends of Note 123 Intradecade Cycles Combined 130 Summing Up 136 Chapter 6 Repetitive Time Cycles of Note 139 The 212-Week Cycle 140 The 40-Week Cycle 146 The 53-Day Cycle 153 Combining Cycles 163 The Ultimate Time Cycles Model 168 Summing Up 172 Chapter 7 Election Cycle Investing 173 The Election Cycle: By the Years 175 The Election Cycle: By the Months 187 Two Other Patterns in the Election Cycle 205 The Ultimate Election Cycle System 210 Summing Up 214 Chapter 8 Sell in May and Go Away 219 November to May 220 What Is MACD? 225 Using MACD as a Filter 227 October through June for the Nasdaq 238 The Dead Zones 246 The Easiest Market-Beating Strategy in the World 260 October of Year 7 261 Summing Up 264 Chapter 9 Putting It All Together 267 Building Seasonal Trading Models 268 Building the KTI 271 Comparing Extreme KTI Readings 273 Model 1: The Long-Only Method 276 Model 2: The Long-Only Plus Leverage (LOPL) Method 278 Model 3: Jay's Ultimate Seasonal Barometer 281 Summing Up 284 Index 291
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