Bertrand De Jouvenel

The Art of Conjecture (eBook, PDF)

• Format: PDF

Produktbeschreibung

The Art of Conjecture clearly explains what the "study of the future" can mean. De Jouvenel emphasizes the logical and political problems of forecasting and discusses methods in economics, sociology, and political science by which the future can be studied.

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Produktdetails

• Verlag: Taylor & Francis
• Seitenzahl: 325
• Erscheinungstermin: 29. September 2017
• Englisch
• ISBN-13: 9781351305679
• Artikelnr.: 49377560

Autorenporträt

de Jouvenel, Bertrand

Inhaltsangabe

Introduction 1 On the Nature of the Future 2 A Need of Our Species 3
Terminology Part I Personal Destiny 4 The Project 5 The Conditional 6 The
Future as an Object of Knowledge 7 The Principle of Uncertainty Part II Of
Predictions 8 Predictions: I 9 Predictions: II 10 Historical Prediction and
Scientific Prediction Part III Ways of Conceiving the Future 11 Process and
Action 12 The Changing Scene 13 Conjectures and Decisions 14 The Pragmatism
of Conjecture and a Few Consequences Part IV Quantitative Predictions 15 On
Quantification 16 Short-Term Economic Forecasting 17 Long-Term Economic
Forecasting and Its Social Aspects Part V Toward the Surmising Forum 18 The
Political Order and Foreseeability 19 The Forecasting of Ideas 20 The
Surmising Forum