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Professional investors are bombarded on a day to day basis with assertions about the role liquidity is playing and will play in determining prices in the financial markets. Few, if any, of the providers or recipients of such advice can truly claim to understand the well-springs of such liquidity and the transmission mechanisms through which it impacts asset prices. This groundbreaking new book explores the belief that at the core of liquidity there is a force which exerts individuals to effect a financial transaction when they would not otherwise do so. Understanding this force of compulsion…mehr
Professional investors are bombarded on a day to day basis with assertions about the role liquidity is playing and will play in determining prices in the financial markets. Few, if any, of the providers or recipients of such advice can truly claim to understand the well-springs of such liquidity and the transmission mechanisms through which it impacts asset prices. This groundbreaking new book explores the belief that at the core of liquidity there is a force which exerts individuals to effect a financial transaction when they would not otherwise do so. Understanding this force of compulsion is a key to understanding a financial market when it appears to be behaving irrationally. This book will enable new and seasoned investors to develop an understanding of the factors, so that costly mistakes can be avoided without the lesson of experience.
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Autorenporträt
About the authors GORDON PEPPER has the unusual combination of an economics degree from Cambridge and actuarial training. Immediately after he finished taking examinations, he became a dealer on the Floor of the London Stock Exchange. His 'postgraduate university' was the market place, where he underwent the harshest of disciplines. Forecasts based on conventional theories were often wrong. The inescapable conclusion was that these theories were either incorrect or incomplete. Pepper was the joint founder of W. Greenwell & Co's gilt-edged business (that is, the UK government bond business), which arguably became one of the leading bond-advisory businesses in the world, the advice being about both the best investments and the optimum way to execute business. For more than ten years he was the premier analyst in the gilt-edged market and was often described as the guru of that market. He was the principal author of Greenwell's Monetary Bulletin, which, in the 1970s, became one of the most widely read monetary publications produced in the United Kingdom Pepper is the author of three books and the co-author of a fourth: Money, Credit and Inflation (1990), Money, Credit and Asset Prices (1994), Inside Thatcher's Monetarist Revolution (1998), and (with Michael Oliver) Monetarism under Thatcher - Lessons for the Future (2001). He is also chairman of Lombard Street Research Ltd, which is one of the UK's leading independent firms carrying out investment research and specialising in analysis of money, credit and flows of funds. Summarising, Pepper's particular strength is the combination of practitioner and academic. Above all, he writes with great authority from his knowledge of what actually happens in the marketplace. MICHAEL J. OLIVER is currently Professor of Economics at École Supérieure de Commerce de Rennes and a director of Lombard Street Associates, UK. He graduated in economic history at the University of Leicester and was awarded his PhD in economics and economic history from Manchester Metropolitan University. He has held posts at the universities of the West of England, Leeds, Sunderland and has been a Visiting Professor at Gettysburg College, Pennsylvania and Colby College, Maine. He is the author of several books, including Whatever Happened To Monetarism? Economic Policy-making and Social Learning in the United Kingdom Since 1979 (1997); Exchange Rate Regimes in the Twentieth Century (with Derek Aldcroft, 1998) and Monetarism under Thatcher - Lessons for the Future (with Gordon Pepper, 2001). He has just finished co-editing a book (with Derek Aldcroft) entitled Economic Disaster of the Twentieth Century, which is being published by Edward Elgar in 2006. He has contributed articles to Economic History Review, Twentieth Century British History, Economic Affairs, Contemporary British History, Economic Review and Essays in Economic and Business History.
Inhaltsangabe
Foreword by Russell Napier xiii Acknowledgements xvii About the Authors xix List of Tables, Figures and Charts xxiii Introduction 1 Appetiser 1 Structure of the book 2 Language and jargon 2 Academic theories 3 Modern Portfolio Theory 3 The Efficient Markets Hypothesis 4 Forms of investment analysis 4 Fundamental analysis 4 Monetary analysis 5 Technical analysis 5 The intuitive approach 6 What the book is going to say 6 PART I THE LIQUIDITY THEORY 9 1 Types of Trades in Securities 11 2 Persistent Liquidity Trades 15 3 Extrapolative Expectations 21 4 Discounting Liquidity Transactions 25 5 Cyclical Changes Associated with Business Cycles 37 6 Shifts in the Savings Demand for Money 43 PART II FINANCIAL BUBBLES AND DEBT DEFLATION 49 7 Financial Bubbles 51 8 Debt Deflation 55 PART III ELABORATION 59 9 Creation of Printing-press Money 61 10 Control of Fountain-pen Money and the Counterparts of Broad Money 65 11 Modern Portfolio Theory and the Nature of Risk 71 12 Technical Analysis and Crowds 81 13 The Intuitive Approach to Asset Prices 87 14 Forms of Analysis 93 PART IV EVIDENCE AND PRACTICAL EXAMPLES 101 15 The UK Markets Prior to 1972 103 16 The US Equity Market 1960-2002 109 17 Two Forecasts 113 18 Debt Deflation, Practical Experience 119 PART V MONITORING DATA 121 19 Monitoring Current Data for the Monetary Aggregates 123 20 Monitoring Data for the Supply of Money 139 21 The Different Sectors of the Economy 145 Glossary 149 References 157 Index 159
Foreword by Russell Napier xiii Acknowledgements xvii About the Authors xix List of Tables, Figures and Charts xxiii Introduction 1 Appetiser 1 Structure of the book 2 Language and jargon 2 Academic theories 3 Modern Portfolio Theory 3 The Efficient Markets Hypothesis 4 Forms of investment analysis 4 Fundamental analysis 4 Monetary analysis 5 Technical analysis 5 The intuitive approach 6 What the book is going to say 6 PART I THE LIQUIDITY THEORY 9 1 Types of Trades in Securities 11 2 Persistent Liquidity Trades 15 3 Extrapolative Expectations 21 4 Discounting Liquidity Transactions 25 5 Cyclical Changes Associated with Business Cycles 37 6 Shifts in the Savings Demand for Money 43 PART II FINANCIAL BUBBLES AND DEBT DEFLATION 49 7 Financial Bubbles 51 8 Debt Deflation 55 PART III ELABORATION 59 9 Creation of Printing-press Money 61 10 Control of Fountain-pen Money and the Counterparts of Broad Money 65 11 Modern Portfolio Theory and the Nature of Risk 71 12 Technical Analysis and Crowds 81 13 The Intuitive Approach to Asset Prices 87 14 Forms of Analysis 93 PART IV EVIDENCE AND PRACTICAL EXAMPLES 101 15 The UK Markets Prior to 1972 103 16 The US Equity Market 1960-2002 109 17 Two Forecasts 113 18 Debt Deflation, Practical Experience 119 PART V MONITORING DATA 121 19 Monitoring Current Data for the Monetary Aggregates 123 20 Monitoring Data for the Supply of Money 139 21 The Different Sectors of the Economy 145 Glossary 149 References 157 Index 159
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