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This indispensable tool provides readers with complete coverage of the issues, methods, and art of valuing and pricing of early-stage technologies including backgrounds in the core concepts, sources of value, methods of valuation, equity realizations, and negotiation strategies.
This indispensable tool provides readers with complete coverage of the issues, methods, and art of valuing and pricing of early-stage technologies including backgrounds in the core concepts, sources of value, methods of valuation, equity realizations, and negotiation strategies.
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Autorenporträt
Dr. Richard Razgaitis is a Senior Advisor at CRAI, an international consulting firm providing expertise in economics, finance, and business strategy. He has over thirty years of experience working with the develop-ment, commercialization, and strategic management of technology, more than twenty-five of which have been spent specializing in the commercialization of intellectual property. He has negotiated numerous commercialization agreements with clients in the United States, Europe, and the Far East, ranging from Fortune 500 to small startup companies and is the author of four books on valuation and negotiation/dealmaking published by John Wiley and Sons.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface vii Disclaimer viii About the Author ix Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1 Introduction to Opportunity Discovery, Valuation, and Dealmaking 1 Introduction: Technology D-V-D 1 Taxonomy of Technology Licensing 5 High Significance, High Ambiguity Contexts 7 Licensing D-V-D and Innovation 12 Going Forward 23 Notes 23 Chapter 2 Risk and Reward 27 Uncertainty 27 Phronesis (Judgment) 31 Technology Uncertainty 32 More on Risk 35 Value and Price 45 Two Final Points on Buying and Selling 48 Notes 49 Approach I Opportunity Discovery 51 Chapter 3 Identifying and Prioritizing Technology Opportunities 53 Seller "Opportunity Space" 53 The Technology Box 63 Buy-Side Expressions of Value: The Wheelbarrow 69 Overview of Valuation Methods 71 The Six Valuation Methods 77 Conclusion 81 Notes 82 Approach II Valuation 85 Chapter 4 Method 1: Use of Industry Standards for Valuation 87 The Concept and Limitations of "Industry Standards" 87 Sources of Industry Standard Data and Information 97 Survey Results as a Source of Industry Standards Data and Information 98 Proposed or Established Norms 105 Shopped Term Sheets and Price Lists 107 News Sources of License Agreement Information 109 Journals, Proprietary Databases, Reports, and Consultants 118 Published License Agreements as a Source of Industry Standards 119 Court Cases/Judgments as a Source of Industry Standards 123 Patent Pools 126 Lifetime and Organizational Learning 127 Average Error 127 Concluding Observations and Cautionary Notes 129 Appendix 4A: Outline of Agreement between DuPont and University of Houston 131 Notes 134 Chapter 5 Method 2: The Rating/Ranking Method, and Tool 139 Ubiquity of Rating/Ranking 141 Overview of How Rating/Ranking Can Be Used in Valuation 145 Groups and Grouping as a Fundamental Knowledge Forming Process 148 Using Rating/Ranking to Value Technology: Factor Assessment 155 Developing Criteria for Using Rating/Ranking for Valuation of Technologies 162 Illustrations of Applying the Rating/Ranking Method 168 Issues in Interpreting Value from a Rating/Ranking Result 171 Using Rating/Ranking to Value Technology: Classified Value 174 Uses of Rating/Ranking with Approaches and as a General Tool 176 Perspectives on Rating/Ranking as an Approach with Licensing 182 Knowledge, Uncertainty, and Humility 185 Conclusion 189 Appendix 5A: Factors in Pricing License 190 Notes 196 Chapter 6 Method 3: Rules of Thumb to Determine Valuation 201 Foundations of Rules of Thumb 203 Cost Savings Example of the 25 Percent Rule 205 Perspectives on the 25 Percent Rule 208 Use of the 25 Percent Rule for Apportioning New Profits 209 Examples of Applying the 25 Percent Rule to New Profits Licensing 211 A Universal Rule of Thumb Chart 222 Other Percent Rule Values 224 Some Misuses/Misapplications of the 25 Percent Rule 225 Other Valuation Rules of Thumb Used (or Have Been Proposed) 226 Summary Points on the Use of the 25 Percent Rule 229 Conclusion 231 Notes 232 Chapter 7 Method 4: Discounted Cash Flow Method to Determine Valuation 235 Overview of the DCF Method 236 Basic Financial Concepts 247 Quantification, Classification of Risk 265 An Example Cash Flow Projection from a License 277 Additional Considerations for Calculating DCF 289 Segment and Scenario Analysis 293 Cash Flow Projections 299 Other Issues to Be Considered with the DCF Method 318 Conclusion 330 Sources of Information to Develop Business Projections 331 Notes 331 Chapter 8 Method 5: Advanced Valuation Methods 337 Modified Discounted Cash Flow Method 338 Monte Carlo Method 345 Real Option Methods 414 Conclusion 447 Online Resources 448 Appendix 8A: Example Crystal Ball Report for Exhibit 8.18 449 Appendix 8B: Crystal Ball Report Corresponding to the Results Presented in Exhibit 8.XX for a Double-Humped Cost Distribution Assumption 456 Notes 464 Chapter 9 Method 6: Valuation by Auctions 469 Introduction to Auctions 470 When Auctions are Feasible 471 Auction Examples 474 Auctions as Distinct from Other Types of Dealmaking 479 Auction Strategies for Buyers 489 Auction Caution 490 Conclusion 491 Appendix 9A: Bidder's Agreement 491 Notes 492 Approach III Dealmaking 495 Chapter 10 Approach: Deal Structure 497 Return to the Box and Wheelbarrow 498 Cash When Pricing Structures 502 Cash As Pricing Structures 507 Cash If Pricing Structures 517 Cash Maybe: Options 521 Consideration Forms Beyond Simple Cash 522 Special Form of Cash If: Equity 525 Balancing Simplicity with Comprehensiveness 537 Conclusion 537 Notes 538 Chapter 11 People, Process, and Lessons Learned 541 Introduction 541 Deal Team 546 Deal Targets 552 Negotiating Plan 556 Plan B 560 Concluding Advice from Technology Dealmakers 565 Notes 566 Chapter 12 In Conclusion 569 Approach of Opportunity Discovery as a Quest 569 Approach of Valuation: A Review of the Six Valuation Methods 572 Approach of Dealmaking 583 Closing Thoughts 592 Website Resources 594 Notes 594 Appendix: List of Abbreviations and Trademarks 597 Bibliography 599 Index 603
Preface vii Disclaimer viii About the Author ix Acknowledgments xi Chapter 1 Introduction to Opportunity Discovery, Valuation, and Dealmaking 1 Introduction: Technology D-V-D 1 Taxonomy of Technology Licensing 5 High Significance, High Ambiguity Contexts 7 Licensing D-V-D and Innovation 12 Going Forward 23 Notes 23 Chapter 2 Risk and Reward 27 Uncertainty 27 Phronesis (Judgment) 31 Technology Uncertainty 32 More on Risk 35 Value and Price 45 Two Final Points on Buying and Selling 48 Notes 49 Approach I Opportunity Discovery 51 Chapter 3 Identifying and Prioritizing Technology Opportunities 53 Seller "Opportunity Space" 53 The Technology Box 63 Buy-Side Expressions of Value: The Wheelbarrow 69 Overview of Valuation Methods 71 The Six Valuation Methods 77 Conclusion 81 Notes 82 Approach II Valuation 85 Chapter 4 Method 1: Use of Industry Standards for Valuation 87 The Concept and Limitations of "Industry Standards" 87 Sources of Industry Standard Data and Information 97 Survey Results as a Source of Industry Standards Data and Information 98 Proposed or Established Norms 105 Shopped Term Sheets and Price Lists 107 News Sources of License Agreement Information 109 Journals, Proprietary Databases, Reports, and Consultants 118 Published License Agreements as a Source of Industry Standards 119 Court Cases/Judgments as a Source of Industry Standards 123 Patent Pools 126 Lifetime and Organizational Learning 127 Average Error 127 Concluding Observations and Cautionary Notes 129 Appendix 4A: Outline of Agreement between DuPont and University of Houston 131 Notes 134 Chapter 5 Method 2: The Rating/Ranking Method, and Tool 139 Ubiquity of Rating/Ranking 141 Overview of How Rating/Ranking Can Be Used in Valuation 145 Groups and Grouping as a Fundamental Knowledge Forming Process 148 Using Rating/Ranking to Value Technology: Factor Assessment 155 Developing Criteria for Using Rating/Ranking for Valuation of Technologies 162 Illustrations of Applying the Rating/Ranking Method 168 Issues in Interpreting Value from a Rating/Ranking Result 171 Using Rating/Ranking to Value Technology: Classified Value 174 Uses of Rating/Ranking with Approaches and as a General Tool 176 Perspectives on Rating/Ranking as an Approach with Licensing 182 Knowledge, Uncertainty, and Humility 185 Conclusion 189 Appendix 5A: Factors in Pricing License 190 Notes 196 Chapter 6 Method 3: Rules of Thumb to Determine Valuation 201 Foundations of Rules of Thumb 203 Cost Savings Example of the 25 Percent Rule 205 Perspectives on the 25 Percent Rule 208 Use of the 25 Percent Rule for Apportioning New Profits 209 Examples of Applying the 25 Percent Rule to New Profits Licensing 211 A Universal Rule of Thumb Chart 222 Other Percent Rule Values 224 Some Misuses/Misapplications of the 25 Percent Rule 225 Other Valuation Rules of Thumb Used (or Have Been Proposed) 226 Summary Points on the Use of the 25 Percent Rule 229 Conclusion 231 Notes 232 Chapter 7 Method 4: Discounted Cash Flow Method to Determine Valuation 235 Overview of the DCF Method 236 Basic Financial Concepts 247 Quantification, Classification of Risk 265 An Example Cash Flow Projection from a License 277 Additional Considerations for Calculating DCF 289 Segment and Scenario Analysis 293 Cash Flow Projections 299 Other Issues to Be Considered with the DCF Method 318 Conclusion 330 Sources of Information to Develop Business Projections 331 Notes 331 Chapter 8 Method 5: Advanced Valuation Methods 337 Modified Discounted Cash Flow Method 338 Monte Carlo Method 345 Real Option Methods 414 Conclusion 447 Online Resources 448 Appendix 8A: Example Crystal Ball Report for Exhibit 8.18 449 Appendix 8B: Crystal Ball Report Corresponding to the Results Presented in Exhibit 8.XX for a Double-Humped Cost Distribution Assumption 456 Notes 464 Chapter 9 Method 6: Valuation by Auctions 469 Introduction to Auctions 470 When Auctions are Feasible 471 Auction Examples 474 Auctions as Distinct from Other Types of Dealmaking 479 Auction Strategies for Buyers 489 Auction Caution 490 Conclusion 491 Appendix 9A: Bidder's Agreement 491 Notes 492 Approach III Dealmaking 495 Chapter 10 Approach: Deal Structure 497 Return to the Box and Wheelbarrow 498 Cash When Pricing Structures 502 Cash As Pricing Structures 507 Cash If Pricing Structures 517 Cash Maybe: Options 521 Consideration Forms Beyond Simple Cash 522 Special Form of Cash If: Equity 525 Balancing Simplicity with Comprehensiveness 537 Conclusion 537 Notes 538 Chapter 11 People, Process, and Lessons Learned 541 Introduction 541 Deal Team 546 Deal Targets 552 Negotiating Plan 556 Plan B 560 Concluding Advice from Technology Dealmakers 565 Notes 566 Chapter 12 In Conclusion 569 Approach of Opportunity Discovery as a Quest 569 Approach of Valuation: A Review of the Six Valuation Methods 572 Approach of Dealmaking 583 Closing Thoughts 592 Website Resources 594 Notes 594 Appendix: List of Abbreviations and Trademarks 597 Bibliography 599 Index 603
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