George Wright, Paul Goodwin, Wright

Forecasting with Judgment

Herausgegeben:Wright, George; Goodwin, Paul

• Gebundenes Buch

Produktbeschreibung

Das menschliche Urteilsvermögen war Gegenstand jahrelanger Forschungen zur Entscheidungsfindung und Prognose. Während anfangs der Schwerpunkt der Forschung auf der relativen Genauigkeit von urteilsmäßigen und statistischen Prognosen lag, hat sich das Interesse dahingehend verlagert, daß nun untersucht wird, wie der Urteilende zu seiner Prognose kommt und wie die Prognosegenauigkeit durch geeignete Unterstützung verbessert werden kann. Im Anschluß an ihren Vorläufer 'Judgemental Forecasting' haben Wright und Goodwin eine Reihe von Abhandlungen zusammengetragen, die von herausragenden Akademikern verfaßt wurden, sich hauptsächlich mit Prognosen befassen und ein breites, multi-disziplinäres Publikum anvisieren. Behandelt werden in leicht verständlicher Weise neue und zukünftige Probleme.

Produktdetails

• Verlag: Wiley & Sons
• 1. Auflage
• Seitenzahl: 316
• Erscheinungstermin: 9. April 1998
• Englisch
• Abmessung: 235mm x 157mm x 23mm
• Gewicht: 576g
• ISBN-13: 9780471970149
• ISBN-10: 047197014X
• Artikelnr.: 07363391

Autorenporträt

George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting. Paul Goodwin, PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS.

Inhaltsangabe

Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy (S. Makridakis & A. Gaba).
Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future (K. van
der Heijden). Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information
(M. O'Connor & M. Lawrence). Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The
Role of Laboratory Research (P. Goodwin). Heuristics and Biases in
Judgmental Forecasting (F. Bolger & N. Harvey). Financial Forecasting with
Judgment (D. Önkal-Atay). Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability
Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects (G. Browne & S.
Curley). The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting (G.
Rowe). How Bad Is Human Judgment? (P. Ayton). Integration of Statistical
Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical
Research (J. Armstrong & F. Collopy). Index.