Political science is an intensely quantitative discipline, and models are central. Political scientists use models¿formal and informal, statistical and qualitative¿to investigate and illuminate causal mechanisms, generate comparative data, and understand the conditions under which certain outcomes are expected to occur. But how do we justify and rationalize the method? Why test predictions from a deductive, and thus truth-preserving, system? David Primo and KevinClarke tackle these central questions in this novel work of methodology.
Political science is an intensely quantitative discipline, and models are central. Political scientists use models¿formal and informal, statistical and qualitative¿to investigate and illuminate causal mechanisms, generate comparative data, and understand the conditions under which certain outcomes are expected to occur. But how do we justify and rationalize the method? Why test predictions from a deductive, and thus truth-preserving, system? David Primo and KevinClarke tackle these central questions in this novel work of methodology.
Kevin A. Clarke is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. His research focuses on political methodology and model discrimination tests. Clarke's articles have appeared in American Political Science Review, American Journal of Political Science, Political Analysis, and many other journals. David M. Primo is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Rochester. His research focuses on American politics and political economy. Primo has authored or co-authored two books, The Plane Truth and Transportation Policy and Rules and Restraint, and many journal articles.
Inhaltsangabe
Preface 1 A Model Discipline 1.1 The Model in Political Science 1.2 Metaphors and Analogies, Fables and Fictions 1.3 The broad themes of the book 1.3.1 Science is not what we think it is 1.3.2 Current practice is not "philosophy-free" 1.3.3 Models are objects 1.3.4 Models are not tested with data 1.3.5 Explanation 1.4 Plan of the Book 1.5 What this Book is Not 2 The Science in Political Science 2.1 Introduction 2.2 What Political Scientists Say They Are Doing 2.3 Hypothetico-Deductivism 2.4 Problems with H-D 2.4.1 Deductions are Truth-Preserving 2.4.2 Data Can't Speak for Themselves 2.4.3 Other Problems with H-D 2.5 How We Got Here 2.5.1 Logical Positivism 2.5.2 Pathologies of Rational Choice 2.5.3 Methods and Models 2.5.4 The Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models 2.6 Conclusion 3 What is a Model? 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Models as Maps 3.3 A Few Examples 3.4 The Received View of Scientific Theories 3.5 The Semantic Conception of Scientific Theories 3.6 The Model-Based View of Scientific Theories 3.7 Models and Theories 3.8 Conclusion 4 Theoretical Models 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Aspects of Theoretical Models 4.3 The Purposes of Models 4.3.1 Foundational Models 4.3.2 Organizational Models 4.3.3 Exploratory Models 4.3.4 Predictive Models 4.4 Judging a Theoretical Model 4.4.1 Prediction is the Wrong Standard (Usually) 4.4.2 The Illusion of Precise Standards 4.4.3 Dimensions of Usefulness 4.5 Conclusion 5 Empirical Models 5.1 Introduction 5.2 What is an Empirical Model? 5.2.1 A Model-Based Understanding 5.3 The Purposes of Empirical Models 5.4 The Illogic of Theory Testing 5.4.1 Falsificationism 5.4.2 Verificationism 5.4.3 Bayesian Confirmation 5.5 The Other Uses of Empirical Modeling 5.6 Conclusion 6 Explanation 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Existing justifications 6.3 Explanation 6.3.1 What constitutes an explanation? 6.3.2 Explanation in Political Science 6.4 Models as explanations 6.5 Choosing among explanations 6.5.1 Comparative Model Testing 6.5.2 Is choosing necessary? 6.6 Conclusion 7 Conclusion 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Review of the argument 7.3 Issues and counterarguments Bibliography
Preface 1 A Model Discipline 1.1 The Model in Political Science 1.2 Metaphors and Analogies, Fables and Fictions 1.3 The broad themes of the book 1.3.1 Science is not what we think it is 1.3.2 Current practice is not "philosophy-free" 1.3.3 Models are objects 1.3.4 Models are not tested with data 1.3.5 Explanation 1.4 Plan of the Book 1.5 What this Book is Not 2 The Science in Political Science 2.1 Introduction 2.2 What Political Scientists Say They Are Doing 2.3 Hypothetico-Deductivism 2.4 Problems with H-D 2.4.1 Deductions are Truth-Preserving 2.4.2 Data Can't Speak for Themselves 2.4.3 Other Problems with H-D 2.5 How We Got Here 2.5.1 Logical Positivism 2.5.2 Pathologies of Rational Choice 2.5.3 Methods and Models 2.5.4 The Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models 2.6 Conclusion 3 What is a Model? 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Models as Maps 3.3 A Few Examples 3.4 The Received View of Scientific Theories 3.5 The Semantic Conception of Scientific Theories 3.6 The Model-Based View of Scientific Theories 3.7 Models and Theories 3.8 Conclusion 4 Theoretical Models 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Aspects of Theoretical Models 4.3 The Purposes of Models 4.3.1 Foundational Models 4.3.2 Organizational Models 4.3.3 Exploratory Models 4.3.4 Predictive Models 4.4 Judging a Theoretical Model 4.4.1 Prediction is the Wrong Standard (Usually) 4.4.2 The Illusion of Precise Standards 4.4.3 Dimensions of Usefulness 4.5 Conclusion 5 Empirical Models 5.1 Introduction 5.2 What is an Empirical Model? 5.2.1 A Model-Based Understanding 5.3 The Purposes of Empirical Models 5.4 The Illogic of Theory Testing 5.4.1 Falsificationism 5.4.2 Verificationism 5.4.3 Bayesian Confirmation 5.5 The Other Uses of Empirical Modeling 5.6 Conclusion 6 Explanation 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Existing justifications 6.3 Explanation 6.3.1 What constitutes an explanation? 6.3.2 Explanation in Political Science 6.4 Models as explanations 6.5 Choosing among explanations 6.5.1 Comparative Model Testing 6.5.2 Is choosing necessary? 6.6 Conclusion 7 Conclusion 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Review of the argument 7.3 Issues and counterarguments Bibliography
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