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The following excursion into a strange and not-so-pleasant world is fictional. What is not fictional is that a continuing population growth rate of 2 percent per year will rapidly lead to very large numbers of people. When sustained for four hundred years, a growth rate of 2 percent per year will increase the population by a factor of about 2,750. Thus, starting with a world population of about 3 billion not very many years ago, the number of people in the world will grow to 8,250 billion about four hundred years later. At the same time, the population in the United States will increase to 550…mehr
The following excursion into a strange and not-so-pleasant world is fictional. What is not fictional is that a continuing population growth rate of 2 percent per year will rapidly lead to very large numbers of people. When sustained for four hundred years, a growth rate of 2 percent per year will increase the population by a factor of about 2,750. Thus, starting with a world population of about 3 billion not very many years ago, the number of people in the world will grow to 8,250 billion about four hundred years later. At the same time, the population in the United States will increase to 550 billion if it started from 200 million and also increased at the rate of 2 percent per year. Allowing for some minor calamities, such as a small nuclear war, we may not reach the preliminary goal for the world population of 8,250 billions of people until the year 2388. This small extrapolation has been made in our story.
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Autorenporträt
Stanford S. Penner is a distinguished professor emeritus of engineering physics at the University of California, San Diego. During World War II, he worked at the Allegany Ballistics Laboratory in Cumberland, Maryland, on rocket developments before returning to the University of Wisconsin, Madison, to complete studies for the PhD in physical chemistry. He then worked briefly for Exxon before joining the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and then the faculty of the California Institute of Technology as an assistant professor of Jet Propulsion before advancement to Associate and then Full Professor of Jet Propulsion. After about 10 years at Caltech, he transferred to the newly founded University of California at San Diego as chairman of the newly founded department of aerospace engineering while collaborating with the distinguished Chinese scientist and engineer H. S. Tsien (who is now celebrated as the developer of Chinese rocketry in China) and also with Th. von Karman who came to America at Caltech as head of aerospace engineering from the University of Aachen in Germany shortly before World War 2. Penner is the author and coauthor of about four hundred research papers in the archival literature of aerospace engineering, of which more than twenty-five are mostly graduate textbooks on radiant heat transfer, rocketry, combustion, and propulsion for advance students in this field of research. He was the 2009 recipient of the National Academy of Engineering Founder's award (awarded once per year to a singles recipient) and has received numerous awards for his research from various national and international academies and research prizes from US and foreign societies and honorary entities. His book on excessive human population growth is his inevitable conclusion that his subject will grow in importance until it will dominate the core concerns of thinking people everywhere a few hundred years in the future.
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