This textbook introduces the fundamental concepts of probability, risk, and uncertainty, and shows their relevance in civil engineering projects with an emphasis on applied probability and statistics. It shows how Microsoft Excel can be used to solve problems and explains practical approaches like Monte Carlo simulations and decision trees.
This textbook introduces the fundamental concepts of probability, risk, and uncertainty, and shows their relevance in civil engineering projects with an emphasis on applied probability and statistics. It shows how Microsoft Excel can be used to solve problems and explains practical approaches like Monte Carlo simulations and decision trees.
Thomas Kjeldsen is a Reader in the Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath, UK, where he teaches introductory courses on engineering risk and uncertainty to undergraduate and postgraduate civil engineering students.
Inhaltsangabe
1. Introduction. 2. Random variables and probability distributions. 3. Parameter estimation. 4. Data visualisation. 5. Uncertainty analysis of engineering systems. 6. Monte Carlo simulations. 7. Structural reliability analysis. 8. Complex systems. 9. Decision-making in an uncertain world. 10. Hypothesis testing. 11. Linear regression models. 12. Low probability, high impact events. 13. Risk communication. 14. Useful Excel functions.
