Regression Fallacy
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Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The regression (or regressive) fallacy is an informal fallacy. It ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of the post hoc fallacy. Things like stock market prices, golf scores, the Earth''s temperature, and chronic back pain fluctuate naturally and usually regress towards the mean. The logical flaw is to make predictions that expect exceptional results to continue as if they were averag...
Please note that the content of this book primarily consists of articles available from Wikipedia or other free sources online. The regression (or regressive) fallacy is an informal fallacy. It ascribes cause where none exists. The flaw is failing to account for natural fluctuations. It is frequently a special kind of the post hoc fallacy. Things like stock market prices, golf scores, the Earth''s temperature, and chronic back pain fluctuate naturally and usually regress towards the mean. The logical flaw is to make predictions that expect exceptional results to continue as if they were average. People are most likely to take action when variance is at its peak. Then after results become more normal they believe that their action was the cause of the change when in fact it was not causal.
